Modelling Holocene Climate Variability & the Green Sahara

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling Holocene Climate Variability & the Green Sahara Prof. Alan M. Haywood School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT. (a.haywood@see.leeds.ac.uk)

Example 1. Mid Holocene 6,000 years ago

Example 1. Mid Holocene 6,000 years ago

Palaeoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Aim was to evaluate whether atmosphere only GCM’s could simulate the mid-Holocene (6000 years BP) Also, to see what aspects of the model simulations were robust, and which depended on model details. 17 different climate models performed the same simulation (changing orbital parameters only). Models differ in their spatial resolution and their parameterisations of small scale processes

The African Monsoon PMIP Atmospheric GCM’s forced by changes in solar insolation only.

N. African Climates: Failure of the GCM’s

Why do the models fail? Missing ocean feedbacks? Missing vegetation feedbacks? Hewitt ….1998, Brostrom …1998

Multiple Equilibrium Coupled Vegetation-Atmosphere model initialised with different vegetation patterns (Claussen 1994)

Multiple Equilibrium Initialised with “green” Sahara

Multiple Equilibrium Final State

Renssen et al. 2006