The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018

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Presentation transcript:

The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 Erika Latyšovič Advisor of the Budgetary Policy Monitoring Department. 11th of June, 2018

The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 Motivation In 2017, the Ministry of Finance as a starting point for GG budget plans for 2018 and assessment of the compliance with fiscal rules used the values from the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2017 (not assessed by IFI) In 2018, responding to that Lithuania‘s IFI conducted an assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018, which had the following goals: to provide an independent opinion on the GG balance and debt for 2017 to assess both the soundness of the GG surplus and the fiscal policy stance for 2018

General Government Surplus for 2017 The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 General Government Surplus for 2017 Sources: the Ministry of Finance, Statistics Lithuania, fiscal institution’s calculations

2017 GG Surplus is due to temporary and one-off factors The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 2017 GG Surplus is due to temporary and one-off factors Spending on military equipment State Company “Deposit and Investment Insurance” Universities Others Sources: the Ministry of Finance, Statistics Lithuania, fiscal institution’s calculations

Nominal and Structural GG Balances in EU Member States, 2017 The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 Nominal and Structural GG Balances in EU Member States, 2017 Sources: Eurostat, European Commission’s 2018 spring projections

Soundness of the GG surplus for 2018 The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 Soundness of the GG surplus for 2018 According to IFI‘s calculations, the estimate of the GG surplus for 2018 was revised downwards from 0.5 % GDP 0.2 % GDP the failure to execute the major taxes and social insurance contribution plans for 2017 performance trends for the first quarter of 2018 municipal budgets approved in 2018 Government decisions which would likely result in higher expenditures

The Dynamics of Lithuania’s Output Gap in 2014–2021 The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 The Dynamics of Lithuania’s Output Gap in 2014–2021 Sources: the Ministry of Finance, European Commission, fiscal institution’s calculations

The Fiscal Policy of Lithuania will maintain its Pro-cyclical Stance The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 The Fiscal Policy of Lithuania will maintain its Pro-cyclical Stance Neutral fiscal stance: –0.2 ≤ SPB change < 0.2 Normal times: –1.5 ≤ output< 1.5 Sources: the Ministry of Finance, European Commission, fiscal institution’s calculations

The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 Summary 2017 GG surplus is due to temporary and one-off factors According to fiscal institution’s calculations, the estimate of the GG surplus for 2018 was revised downwards from 0.5 to 0.2 percent of GDP Given the reduction of the GG primary structural balance in 2018, the fiscal policy of Lithuania will maintain its pro-cyclical stance

The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018 Discussion 1 2 3 Meet Does your fiscal institution carry out an assessment of the Stability programme and, if no, do you have any plans for such assessment in future? What are the main goals, challenges and problems that IFI’s have faced with during assessment of the Stability programme? ? .

„The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018“ Report „The Assessment of the Stability Programme of Lithuania for 2018“ Erika Latyšovič Advisor of the Budgetary Policy Monitoring Department (+370 5) 204 7652 Erika.Latysovic@ifi.lt www.ifi.lt @valstybeskontrole