Probability “What will Be?”

The probability P, of an event is the RATIO of successful outcomes, called Successes, to all outcomes of the event, called Possibilities. P(E)= BACK

Probability of an event is a Number between 0 and 1. BACK

CHANCE Chance is how likely it is that something will happen. To state a chance, we use a percent. ½ Probability 1 Equally likely to happen or not to happen Certain to happen Certain not to happen Chance 50 % 0% 100%

Likelihood When the probability is greater than 0.5, implies the event is likely to happen When the probability is smaller than 0.5, implies the event is unlikely to happen BACK

Applied Probability What is the probability that the sun will rise in the west tomorrow? Zero

The possible outcomes P(H)= and P(T)= An unbiased coin Example 1: An unbiased coin The total possible outcomes is head (H) or Tail (T) P(H)= and P(T)= BACK

Applied Probability If you tossed a quarter 50 times, how many times should it land on tails? 25 times

P( ) = Total possible outcomes is 6. 5 or 6 What is the Probability of Rolling a 5 or 6? Total possible outcomes is 6. P( ) = 5 or 6 BACK

A jar contains 12 blue , 8 green, and 5 red marbles You Try Probability A jar contains 12 blue , 8 green, and 5 red marbles If you reach in & choose 1 What is the P it is blue? What is the P it is not blue? What is the P it is not black? BACK

Probability (Your Turn) What is the P it is blue? P = 12/25 = .48 What is the P it is not blue P = 13/25 = .52 What is the P it is not black P = 25/25 = 1 BACK

Probability “What will Be?”