Climate Context and Sensitivity James Taylor The Heartland Institute July 9, 2014 Las Vegas, NV

Key Questions Regarding Climate Sensitivity: 1. What is the context of recent warming? 2. What is the pace of recent warming? 3. What is the cause of recent warming? 4. How do the computer models function? 5. How have computer model predictions fared?

What Are the Context and Pace of Recent Warming What Are the Context and Pace of Recent Warming? Source: European Science Foundation, Greenland Ice Core Project

IPCC Got It Right! Source: United Nations IPCC Source data: IPCC

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What Drives “Climate Change” What Drives “Climate Change”? Source: Geophysical Research Letters, July and August 2000 Source data: Geophysical Research Letters, July and August 2000

U. S. Temperatures and Solar Changes Source: Dr U.S. Temperatures and Solar Changes Source: Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

The Sun, CO2 and Arctic Temperature Variations Source: Dr The Sun, CO2 and Arctic Temperature Variations Source: Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

What About the Computer Models?

Why the Computer Models Fail Scientists agree that, all other things being equal, doubling atmospheric CO2 will cause merely 1.1 degree Celsius of warming Yet CO2 has risen only 40 percent since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution Computer models assume “positive feedbacks” will cause much more warming than the CO2 itself Humidity Cirrus clouds

Testing the Computer Model Assumptions

NOAA Humidity Measurements

Conclusions Global warming is occurring at a very modest pace. Temperatures still remain relatively cool with the proper context of historical standards. Humans are likely causing some global warming, but nature appears to remain the primary driver. Flawed assumptions about water vapor and cloud impacts explain why models have failed, and will continue to fail. The Earth’s climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide emissions appears quite modest.