Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre, What ACRE will do? Dr Rob Allan, ACRE Project Manager, Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom QCCCE

What is ACRE? ACRE is an international collaborative initiative led by a consortium of: the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) in Australia the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado

for climate applications and impacts needs worldwide. What will ACRE do? Seamlessly: Facilitate the recovery of historical instrumental surface terrestrial and marine global weather observations to underpin 4D weather reconstructions (reanalyses) over the last 200-250 years for climate applications and impacts needs worldwide. It will produce: dynamically consistent, high resolution global historical 4D weather reconstructions at 2o latitude by 2o longitude spatial resolution every 6 hours using state-of-the-art scientific capabilities (in the future, 1/2o spatial resolution) a baseline of 4D weather reconstructions that can be tailored and ‘downscaled’ for: regional to local climate applications, e.g., agricultural, environmental, societal, physical climate impacts, e.g., risk of high impact phenomena direct weather input into biophysical and production models an historical baseline of global weather that can be used to constrain global climate models, putting them in a much stronger position to look into the future at possible implications and impacts of climate change.

applications & impacts community needs & direct feed into Three surface input only historical reanalyses generating 6-hourly 4D atmospheric weather variables 20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891-present (supported in US by NOAA & DoE) Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications (SIRCA) (1840s-2011) North Atlantic-European Region: 1750-present Climate research, applications & impacts community needs & direct feed into biophysical models O L D W E A T H R Ecological Phenological Health & Disease Reinsurance Climate Monitoring Model Validation Global historical surface daily to sub-daily weather observations Environmental Assessments Extremes, Impacts & Risks Water resources Agricultural Forestry Energy Marine operations Fisheries Cultural landscapes & built heritage and downscaling QCCCE

Climate Science Research Climate Applications, Impacts & Risk USERS Climate Science Research Climate Applications, Impacts & Risk Direct feed into Biophysical Models Constraining GCMs Educational Needs The General Public

HISTORICAL GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL & MARINE SURFACE WEATHER DATA Recovery, Imaging, Digitisation and Archiving

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION RECONSTRUCTIONS DATA RESCUE (MEDARE MedCLIVAR IEDRO SIGN) ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION RECONSTRUCTIONS OVER THE EARTH NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES (ECSN, ETCCDI, VACS, CMA, MeteoFrance) GLOBE TERRESTRIAL DATA MARINE DATA R E C L A I M NCDC http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html CDMP http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/cdmp/ GCOS AOPC/OOPC Surface Pressure Working Group International Surface Pressure Data Bank ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/pub/Public/gcompo/ISPDv2.2/ ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ispd/v2.2/Station_Map/ ICOADS http://icoads.noaa.gov/ HISTORICAL CLIMATE QUALITY REANALYSES

AS MUCH SURFACE DATA HASN’T BEEN DIGITISED AS HAS BEEN’ Data needs for ACRE-facilitated Historical Reanalyses of 4D weather conditions Digitised Global Surface Observational Coverage (%) ERA & NCEP POTENTIAL COVERAGE World War 2 World War 1 NCEP & ERA reanalyses need surface, upper air & satellite data => only since 1948, problems with data coverage & quality Global historical reanalyses using only surface observations (MSLP & SST) => 2-3 times longer temporal coverage downscaled for regional climate applications needs 20th Century Reanalysis Project => ongoing, from 1892-present Extension back to 1850 globally Extension back to 1750/1800 with focus on the North Atlantic-European region Major terrestrial & marine surface observations digitisation is underway to support historical reanalyses with priority in the Southern Hemisphere => vast data potential that has not been tapped ‘PRIOR TO WORLD WAR 2, AS MUCH SURFACE DATA HASN’T BEEN DIGITISED AS HAS BEEN’

Activities in recovering, imaging and digitising historical marine and terrestrial observations 2007/2009: English East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) – held in the British Library (imaging by British Library, digitised by CDMP in US) 900 of the 2,000 logs have instrumental data [200K images] http://www.oldweather.org/examples/east-india-company 2008/2009: Extended World War 1 period logbooks (1914-1923) - held in the UK National Archives (imaging by UK National Archives) 7,000 to 8,000 logs [300K+ images] 2007/2009: Printed/published logbooks of late 19th- early 20th Century Antarctic expeditions plus ships of exploration – online plus held in the Met Office Library & Archives (imaging & digitisation) http://www.oldweather.org/examples/TerraNova 2008: Inventory of historical Chinese and South China Sea instrumental weather observations - an initiative in conjunction with Professor Robert Bickers, Department of Historical Studies, Bristol University and Chinese Maritime Customs Project, to produce an inventory of all the sources of historical Chinese and South China Sea region terrestrial and marine daily to sub-daily meteorological data. 2008: Inventory of British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books (1834-1909) – held at the UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) (inventory of holdings in the archives of the UKHO) about 6,000 remarks books 2009: CoRRal: UK Colonial registers and Royal Naval Logbooks – held at The National Archives (imaging and digitising logbooks of ships on voyages of discovery 1700-1850: ADM-55, and attached to the Hydrographic Survey 1830-1850) plus held at The National Archives and the Met Office Archives (UK colonial meteorological registers, journals and gazettes 1840-present). CoRRal: a Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) Digitisation Programme: Enriching Digital Resources funded project.

PROJECTED/POTENTIAL TIMELINE 2009: The 20th Century Reanalysis Project: 1891 to present Version 1: 1908-1958: Available – we have a terabyte disc of ensemble means Version 2: 1891-2008 available Autumn-2009 2009: British East India Company (EIC) logbooks (1780s-1830s) Imaged & Digitised 2010: Final version of HadISST2 2010-2011: Extended World War 1 period logbooks (1914-1923) Imaged & Digitised 2010-2012: Surface Input Reanalysis for Climate Applications (SIRCA) (with DoE and NOAA support) Version 3: early/mid-19th – 21st century would need all data by September-October 2010 improved version of NCEP model at higher resolution => hurricanes, high impact phenomena? potentially available in 2012 201?: British hydrographic and survey vessel remarks books (1834-1909) Imaging & Digitisation 201?: North Atlantic-European Region mid18th-early 19th Century Reanalysis: 1750/1800 to present

ACRE Project Manager Dr Rob Allan Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre E-mail: rob.allan@metoffice.gov.uk Alternative E-mail: allarob@googlemail.com ACRE WWW Site: http://www.met-acre.org/ Old Weather WWW Site: http://www.oldweather.org/ Phone: +44 (0)1392 886904 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Address: Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB U.K.