Framework for setting goals and actions to reach goals Seminar on the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 in Africa Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11 to 15 April 2011 Herman Smith UNSD/DESA

Outline of presentation Introduction Strategic planning framework Vision document

Statement of strategy Development of an economic statistics programme for compiling the required scope and detail of the National Accounts to inform policy makers National policy development plans, NSDS, etc Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building (RRSF, ASCC, AStCom, AchartStats, SHaSA)

Typical strategic planning framework Mandate, Underpinned by Legal mandate (Statistical act) International standards Mission Values High-level goals Specific goals Required activities

Strategic planning frame work Mandate, underpinned by Legal mandate (Statistical act) International standards UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics 2008 SNA BPM6 GFSM ISIC rev4 Mission Compile national accounts according to milestone two of the SNA implementation, comprising the minimum required data set

Strategic planning frame work Values Statistical professionalism Independence and integrity Excellent service to our customers Respect and understanding for our data suppliers Value for money High level goals – Strategic lines Specific goals – Strategic objectives/actions Required activities

High level goals – Strategic lines 1: Equipping African countries with an SNA that is appropriate to their socio-economic realities Develop a description of the sources and methods based on the 2008 SNA that are relevant for the country 2: Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of national accounts Develop sources and methods that are relevant for the ICP programme

High level goals – Strategic lines 3: Preparing an optimal and efficient operational system of production and diffusion of national accounts Timeliness, Periodicity, Revision cycle Scope Detail 4: Building capacity and sustainability of national accounts production and analysis National accounts production and training capacity building

High level goals – Strategic lines 5: Increasing the availability and improving the quality of the basic data required for the compilation of national accounts, based on the National Strategy for the development of statistics (NSDS) Development of source data – Business registers and frames Surveys Administrative data International statistical standards (BPM6, ISICr4, GFS etc.) 6: Increasing human, material and financial resources Institutional capacity building

High level goals – Strategic lines 7: Undertake advocacy at all decision making levels Communicate the use of national accounts in policy making Monitoring and Reporting Communication and dissemination of the national accounts to users

Developing specific goals Assessment of the NSS to support national accounts compilation - Where are we now Using the Diagnostic tool Develop a vision for improving the availability and quality of the economic statistics required for the compilation of national accounts

Vision document cont Discuss vision preferably in a national seminar with all stakeholders, such as: policy planners; users including the academia; and business community.

Vision document cont Such a discussion is expected to help the NSO to: prioritize actions to mitigate the problem areas write a plan for the improvement of the supporting statistics for the compilation of the national accounts develops an information structure for planning, monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the SNA; and builds on the joint efforts of the ISWGNA and AGNA to establish an information structure for managing technical assistance operations

Setting of goals - Where we want to be Scope and detail of the national accounts Frequency of aggregates – nominal and volumes 2008 SNA compliance ISIC ref 4 compliance Requirements from the African strategy Required data sources – Needs Current data sources and compilation methods – What you have

Objectives and actions of the African strategy that are of particular importance at the national level 1.1.3. Inventory of sources of information and questionnaires (collection tools) required by the 2008 – Diagnostic tool 2.1.1. Integration of the GDP breakdown (for ICP) into the 2008 SNA national accounts routine work – ICP 3.1: Preparing national accounts in accordance with an timeline that respects the national, sub regional and international requirements – MRDS (timeliness and periodicity) 3.2.2. Establishing tables to be elaborated and published by group of countries – MRDS (scope and detail)

Links to the African strategy cont 4.1.1. Utilization of modern and country adapted IT tools 5.1.1. Evaluation of data sources required for the elaboration of the 2008 System of national accounts – Diagnostic tool 5.1.2. Development of statistical surveys required for improvement of national accounts – determined by Diagnostic tool 5.2.1. Making an inventory of administrative data sources required for national accounts compilation – Diagnostic tool 5.3: Implementing international statistical systems (balance of payments, budget statistics, financial statistics, etc) for the improvement of national accounts – BPM6, GFSM IRIS, IRDTS 5.4: Adapting international classifications to African socio- economic realities – ISIC rev 4

Principal data sources and compilation methods Vision document Setting of goals - Where we want to be Data item Frequency 2008 SNA Required sources Principal data sources and compilation methods M Q A N V Nominal Volumes National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDS Set of short term indicators Blue – Goals Green – needs Red – current status

Principal data sources and compilation methods Vision document Setting of goals - Where we want to be Data item Frequency 2008 SNA Required sources Principal data sources and compilation methods M Q A N V Nominal Volumes National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDS Set of short term indicators

Data item 2008 SNA Required sources Nominal Volumes Final consumption expenditure Household final consumption expenditure FISIM allocated to users, Imputed rents Goods that are produced by households for own final consumption Household income and expenditure surveys, retail trade sales by type of expenditure items Housing stock Price indices or volume series by type of expenditure items

Data item 2008 SNA Required sources Nominal Volumes General government final consumption expenditure Government final consumption expenditure broken down into individual and collective consumption GFS data by level of government Consumption of fixed capital of government fixed assets Price indices or volume series by type of expenditure items Individual consumption expenditure Collective consumption expenditure The entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF FISIM allocated to users

Gross fixed capital formation The entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF Consumption of fixed capital measured on all government fixed assets (airfields, roads, hospitals, docks, dams and breakwaters and other forms of construction structures) including military weapon systems The expenditure on Research and Development included in GCF Purchases of computer software expected to be used for more than a year included in GCF Expenditure on software development on own account expected to be used for more than a year and for sale included in GCF The expenditure on all databases expected to be used for more than a year, whether purchased on the market or developed in-house, included in the GCF Expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in the GCF Information by type of asset from: Household income and expenditure surveys capturing own construction expenditure Economic activity surveys (structural business statistics and short term business statistics) GFS data by level of government Price indices or volume series by type of asset

Principal data sources and compilation methods Vision document Setting of goals - Where we want to be Data item Frequency 2008 SNA Required sources Principal data sources and compilation methods M Q A N V Nominal Volumes National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDS Set of short term indicators

Sector Subsector Annual estimates Quarterly estimates Constant-price estimates Final consumption expenditure by households By purpose and Durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods: and services Food beverages and tobacco: All components Benchmark year: Estimated by the five-yearly survey of income and expenditure of households, survey of retail sales, verified by the supply and use framework. Estimates include farm produce consumed by farmers for own account. Other years: Estimated according to monthly surveys of retail trade sales by Stats SA. Information obtained from the National Department of Agriculture, retail trade sales by Stats SA and relevant sources. Nominal expenditure is divided by relevant components of the CPI.

Sector Subsector Annual estimates Quarterly estimates Constant-price estimates Manufacturing Benchmark year: Periodic large sample surveys and AFSs of manufacturing conducted by Stats SA. Other years: AFSs and monthly data on production and sales, and quarterly surveys of financial and labour statistics conducted by Stats SA, supplemented by sample surveys conducted by the SARB. Same as for annual estimates for other years. Base-year estimates are extrapolated using appropriate indices of output quantities based on manufacturing sales at constant prices for the various subsectors of manufacturing.

Required activities Coordination of NSS 2008 SNA compliance ISIC rev 4 compliance Monthly Price statistics Monthly and quarterly production and turnover surveys Business registers Economic activity surveys (structural business statistics and short term business statistics) Household income and expenditure surveys Informal sector surveys etc.

Action plan – How to get there Diagnostic tool reveals data gaps Vision document specify the goals and needs Action plan indicates the required actions with a time table to mitigate data gaps This action plan represents an implementation programme for strengthening the economic statistics for the compilation of the required scope and detail of the national accounts

Development of economic statistics for national accounts National statement of strategy Decide on the scope and detail of national accounts compilation National policy development plans, NSDS, etc. Assessment Assessment of the NSS to support national accounts compilation Where are we now Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building RRSF, ASCC, AStCom, AchartStats, SHaSA COUNTRY OWNERSHIP Vision Setting of goals Where we want to be Political Commitment Statistical capacity Action Plan Actions to reach goals How to get there Support from the regional and global SNA implementation programme Implementation How to stay there

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