Jim Lochhead – Denver Water CEO/Manager Urban Water Institute A Western city’s water future – Meeting Denver’s challenges through flexibility & collaboration Jim Lochhead – Denver Water CEO/Manager Urban Water Institute

Denver Water facts Established in 1918 Governed by Board of Water Commissioners (not the City and County of Denver) Serve 1.4 million people (25% of state’s population) using less than 2% of water used in the state. Total watershed area: 4,000 square miles (State’s third largest public landowner)

Issues facing Colorado’s water supply Growth Crisis on the Colorado River Climate change

Growth The first issue is preparing for Colorado's future growth. Colorado is projected to grow from just over 5 million people today to nearly 8 million in 2040. In the Denver metro area alone, we are projected to add another million people by 2040. How can we assure a secure and sustainable water supply – as well as the necessary energy and appropriate transportation infrastructure – that will protect and even enhance the key values that make Colorado so unique?

Water distribution in Colorado West toward Gulf of California 9,097,000 Acre Feet East toward Gulf of Mexico 1,337,000 Acre Feet We also face challenges with where the water is located in Colorado relative to the population. About 80 percent of the precipitation in the state falls on the western half of the Continental Divide But 80 percent of our population and the largest part of the state’s economic output is located on the eastern side of the Continental Divide

Crisis in the Colorado River System Travels 1450 miles through 7 states and Mexico to the Sea of Cortez Supplies water to 40 million people and 5.5 million acres of agriculture in the Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming), the Lower Basin (Arizona, California, Nevada), and Mexico The system relies on two large regulating reservoirs:  Lake Powell - Upper Basin Lake Mead - Lower Basin Second, we face a potential crisis on the Colorado River. Nearly 40 million people – from Denver, to Salt Lake, to Albuquerque, to Las Vegas, Phoenix and Southern California, encompassing the world’s fifth-largest economy – are in peril from a slow-motion natural disaster that will be exacerbated by climate change. Denver Water has a particular interest because we get half of our water supply from the Colorado River.

Long-term system imbalance For more than a decade, a severe drought – unprecedented in the last 1200 years – has gripped the Colorado River, reducing the world’s most developed storage reservoir system closer and closer to critically low water levels. U.S. Department of the Interior-Bureau of Reclamation

Climate change Finally, we must face the impacts of a changing climate. Whatever the cause, we know the earth is warming. We know Colorado's snowpack is melting an average of two weeks earlier than it did only 10 years ago. We also see the devastating effects of wildfires and epic floods – mere months apart in 2013. We don't yet know what the effect of warming will be on precipitation and our water supply. But we know that climate change is about water change. And water change affects everyone.

Integrated Resource Plan Focal Question How can we best prepare our water system and enhance our resources to meet our customers’ water needs as future challenges and opportunities arise? Integrated Resource Plan: The IRP is a collaborative long-range planning tool that integrates planning across all the facilities in our system and will inform the Capital Plan. Long-range planning has always been a strength of Denver Water’s, enabling us to meet customers’ needs in a rapidly growing, semi-arid region. Previous IRPs have helped ensure that our customers benefit from a very reliable water system. This IRP will build on that past work and enable us to meet our commitment to our customers in the future. The IRP planning process evaluates the fundamental factors and uncertainties that affect the performance of Denver Water’s system the resources available or potentially developable to meet possible future conditions. Ultimately, the IRP helps Denver Water plan for the right project at the right time for the right cost. The goals for the IRP are to: • Create a water supply, treatment, and delivery strategy for the future • Inform Capital Plan • Plan for the Entire Water system • Encourage Innovation 1/16/2019

Scenario Planning The Cone of Uncertainty Near-term strategy Today B This has also changed the way we plan. We know the past can no longer accurately predict the future, so we have shifted to a model known as scenario planning. Scenario planning is a systematic process, used in highly complex, uncertainty settings to conduct long-term planning. Scenario planning forecasts more than a single future, rather the process examines a range of plausible future conditions. These are developed by considering combinations of forces outside of Denver Water’s planning environment that can impact its ability to meet the future needs of its customers. Climate change, economic stability, and community values are example of forces outside of Denver Water’s control that may impact water supply, quality and use in the future. The actual future of 2065 will not be any one of the developed scenarios. Instead, it will most likely be a combination of them. In highly dynamic planning environments, having the flexibility to adapt to emerging events is a critical, strategic approach. Scenario planning results in an adaptive and flexible plan, providing Denver Water with the means to anticipate and proactively respond to future events.   Step 1 Determine and rank the outside forces that would impact Denver Water’s ability to meet customers’ future water needs. Step 2 Combine the most important outside forces to develop a small set of planning futures. Step 3 Develop portfolios (orange lines) of supply, reuse, capacity, and efficiency options to meet the needs in each planning future. Step 4 Inform the capital budget with actions common to all (robust) or most (low regrets) portfolios, including options we may want to keep available to preserve future opportunities. Step 5 Determine what we need to monitor over time that would trigger a decision on additional investments or need for a renewed evaluation of the plan. C Decision points 2050 In 2008, we changed the way we think about the future

Collaboration The Colorado River Cooperative Agreement (CRCA) WISE Forests to Faucets Colorado River System Conservation Program Only by partnering with other entities are we able to solve our collective challenges. Examples of DW Collaboration: Grand County Mitigation and Enhancement Coordination Plan CRCA WISE Forests to Faucets Colorado River System Conservation Program 2014 CRCA Event in Summit County

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