Solar Variation and Climate

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Presentation transcript:

Solar Variation and Climate Hunter Clasen 4/26/11 EAS 4480

Introduction Does the 11-year sunspot cycle control variation in solar flux? Is there a correlation between solar flux and SST? Three time series (1950-2010) Sunspots Solar Flux GMSST (global mean sea surface temperature)

Periodogram: Sunspots Periodogram: Solar Flux Coherence: Sunspots and Solar Flux Correlation Coefficient: .9956 P = 0.0000 (Both time series are detrended)

Solar Flux and GMSST Correlation Coefficient: -0.0080 P = 0.9832

CPSD: Solar Flux and GMSST

Phase Spectrum Lag = 15 τ = 11 years ∆t = .5 years

Coherence

Lomb-scargle: Solar Flux Power Frequency (Hz)

Lomb-scargle: GMSST Power Frequency (Hz)

Solar Flux and GMSST detrended yearly averages used instead of monthly data GMSST smoothed with 3 year running mean Is r significant? Correlation Coefficient: 0.1627 P = 0.2103 Correlation Coefficient (1960-2000): 0.4212 P = 0.0055

Coherence: Solar Flux and GMSST

Conclusion The variation in solar flux is strongly correlated with the sunspot cycle Solar flux has a strong effect on SST SST is also affected by other processes: Greenhouse effect Ocean circulation

Sources NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/ MATLAB sunspot data

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