SUMMER “FINISH IN FOUR” INITIATIVE – FALL UPDATE SEPTEMBER 13, 2018

FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT

FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT

FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT

BENCHMARK GRAD RATES (IPEDS)

BENCHMARK GRAD RATES (IPEDS)

BENCHMARK GRAD RATES (IPEDS) 73%

FOUR-YEAR GRADUATION RATES BY COHORT Target Grad Rate = 73%

Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model FACTORS AFFECTING GRAD RATE Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model Beta On-Track Status (Year 1) 2.853 Number of DFW’s 1.987 Decision Type 1.783 Elasticity of Program 1.603 New York State Resident 1.558 Undeclared Program 1.304 First-Year Nazareth GPA 1.280 Student Athlete 1.251 Campus Residency Status 1.208 High School GPA 1.172 High School to Nazareth GPA Comparison 1.158 AP Credits Brought In 1.092 Grade in ACS Course 1.071 SAT Score 1.044 Family Contribution 1.004 Date Deposit Received .966 Attempted Credits First Term .934 Grade in English Writing .913 Academic Program Affinity .906 Has Minor? .796 HEOP/EXEL/YS Program .702 Student Loan Debt .695 Date Application Received .664 Number of Campus Visits .555 Unmet Financial Need .306 Constant .125

Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model FACTORS AFFECTING GRAD RATE Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model Beta On-Track Status (Year 1) 2.853 Number of DFW’s 1.987 Decision Type 1.783 Elasticity of Program 1.603 New York State Resident 1.558 Undeclared Program 1.304 First-Year Nazareth GPA 1.280 Student Athlete 1.251 Campus Residency Status 1.208 High School GPA 1.172 High School to Nazareth GPA Comparison 1.158 AP Credits Brought In 1.092 Grade in ACS Course 1.071 SAT Score 1.044 Family Contribution 1.004 Date Deposit Received .966 Attempted Credits First Term .934 Grade in English Writing .913 Academic Program Affinity .906 Has Minor? .796 HEOP/EXEL/YS Program .702 Student Loan Debt .695 Date Application Received .664 Number of Campus Visits .555 Unmet Financial Need .306 Constant .125

Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model FACTORS AFFECTING GRAD RATE Coefficients – Binary Logistic Regression Model Beta On-Track Status (Year 1) 2.853 Number of DFW’s 1.987 Decision Type 1.783 Elasticity of Program 1.603 New York State Resident 1.558 Undeclared Program 1.304 First-Year Nazareth GPA 1.280 Athlete 1.251 Campus Residency Status 1.208 High School GPA 1.172 High School to Nazareth GPA Comparison 1.158 AP Credits Brought In 1.092 Grade in ACS Course 1.071 SAT Score 1.044 Family Contribution 1.004 Date Deposit Received .966 Attempted Credits First Term .934 Grade in English Writing .913 Academic Program Affinity .906 Has Minor? .796 HEOP/EXEL/YS Program .702 Student Loan Debt .695 Date Application Received .664 Number of Campus Visits .555 Unmet Financial Need .306 Constant .125 15 credits… 30… 45… 60… 75… 90…

COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016) ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE) COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)

COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016) ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE) COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)

COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016) ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE) COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)

COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016) ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE) COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016)

ON-TRACK CREDITS (GRAD RATE) COHORT PERSISTENCE (2008-2016) Staying on-track more than doubles the 4-year grad rate

GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL SO, WHAT IF OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN GET BACK ON TRACK AS SOPHOMORES? OFF Track ON Track

OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL SO, WHAT IF OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN GET BACK ON TRACK AS SOPHOMORES? OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS OFF Track ON Track STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL SO, WHAT IF OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN GET BACK ON TRACK AS SOPHOMORES? OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS OFF Track ON Track STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS +60% OFF Track ON Track STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

GETTING STUDENTS BACK ON-TRACK HAS A HA-YUUUGE GRAD RATES BY RISK PREDICTION MODEL GETTING STUDENTS BACK ON-TRACK HAS A HA-YUUUGE EFFECT OFF-TRACK (FRESH) STUDENTS +60% OFF Track ON Track STATUS AFTER SOPHOMORE YEAR

GETTING BACK ON TRACK HOW ARE STUDENTS GETTING BACK ON TRACK? SOURCE OF CREDITS Summer Enroll Overload (Soph) Delayed AP Credits

CREDITS TRANSFERRED IN FROM ELSEWHERE GETTING BACK ON TRACK HOW ARE STUDENTS GETTING BACK ON TRACK? SOURCE OF CREDITS Summer Enroll Overload (Soph) CREDITS TRANSFERRED IN FROM ELSEWHERE Delayed AP Credits

WHY ARE THEY GOING SOMEWHERE ELSE??? In deciding to take courses at another institution or when considering transferring, how important were each of the following reasons?* Tuition was less expensive 70% To fulfill general education requirements 69% The location was more convenient 51% To have a more convenient class schedule 50% To complete my degree quicker 42% Felt like I didn't "fit in" at my college 34% Had money problems and could no longer afford to attend college 23% Wasn't doing as well academically as I expected *Percent replying "essential" or "very important"

SO WHAT’S YOUR GREAT PLAN??? PROPOSAL: CREATE AN ACCELERATED SHORT-TERM RESIDENTIAL SUMMER SESSION FOR OUR OFF-TRACK FRESHMEN TO GET THEM BACK ON TRACK 3-WEEK CONCENTRATE SUMMER TERM RESIDENTIAL FULL-DAY CURRICULUM LIVE IN THE RESIDENCE HALLS 3-CREDIT PEQ COURSE (A.M.) 1-CREDIT EXPERIENTIAL COURSE (P.M.) WEEKEND SOCIAL EVENTS

CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN PILOT: WHO IS ELIGIBLE??? CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN PILOT: FIRST-TIME FRESHMEN ENTERING THEIR SECOND YEAR MUST BE IN GOOD ACADEMIC STANDING (GPA > 2.0) MUST HAVE COMPLETED BETWEEN 24 & 28 CREDITS BY THE END OF FIRST YEAR* *includes any AP credits earned

IN 2008-2016 COHORT SAMPLE PILOT GROUP 403 STUDENTS FIT THE PROFILE TOTAL OF 9.4% OF ENTIRE SAMPLE TYPICAL COHORT OF 520 STUDENTS  45-50 STUDENTS IF SUCCESSFUL, CAN BE SCALED UP

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON GRAD RATE PILOT GROUP POTENTIAL IMPACT ON GRAD RATE OF 403 STUDENTS WHO FIT PROFILE, 38.7% FINISHED IN FOUR YEARS WITH 49 STUDENTS IN PILOT, 19 EXPECT TO GRADUATE WITHOUT PROGRAM IF INCREASE RATE TO 80.7%, THEN WE PREDICT 39 WOULD GRADUATE IN 4 YRS POTENTIAL +4% LIFT TO OVERALL RATE

GOALS Improve on-track credits for cohort Promote awareness of and interest in engagement opportunities Advance career exploration Develop academic planning skills Foster sense of belonging Build connections with peers, faculty, and staff

1 week between end of summer experience and start of fall term TIMING 3-WEEK EXPERIENCE Last 2 weeks of Summer B Extend past Summer B by 1 week 1 week between end of summer experience and start of fall term Opportunities for social programming and connections Athletes and student leaders on campus 2019: Start on 7/29/19 End on 8/16/19 Fall term starts 8/26/19

DESIGN IMMERSIVE LIVING LEARNING COMMUNITY MODEL 3 CREDIT PEQ COURSE 1 CREDIT SKILL BUILDING COURSE INTEGRATE EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING COLLABORATIVE LEARNING CULMINATING PROJECT (MINI-CARS) SOCIAL PROGRAMMING

PEQ’S NEEDED Visual & Performing Arts - 18 History - 17 2016 Cohort (40 students) 2017 Cohort (24 students) Visual & Performing Arts - 18 History - 17 Literature - 17 Nat. Sci. & lab - 15 Philosophy - 12 Religious Studies - 12 Social Science - 12 Math - 8 Visual & Performing Arts - 21 Literature - 16 History - 15 Philosophy - 16 Religious Studies - 15 Nat. Sci. & lab - 11 Math - 14 Social Science - 3 From Linda: PEQs in VPA, Literature, and History for certain.  I would avoid natural sciences and social sciences, as there are major-specific PEQ requirements for these for many programs

DISCUSSION Questions? Suggestions?