WRF modelling of Flight B989 20th Oct 2016

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WRF modelling of Flight B989 20th Oct 2016

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Presentation transcript:

WRF modelling of Flight B989 20th Oct 2016 ….cont’d […WRF initialised with 0.5 degree NCEP GFS analyses 33 tracers added Simulation start (and tracer release): 06Z 20th Oct. Simulation end time: 0Z 19th Oct. 400 m resolution, 50 vertical levels. Underlying orography is USGS 30 arc-second. Run on ARCHER 512 processors ~ real time…]

WRF modelling of Flight B989 20th Oct 2016 …continued

FAAM Comparison with observations: assume Katla West is only source Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

WRF At each aircraft measurement point (lat / lon / altitude) Interpolate from WRF output to get corresponding WRF concentration i.e. 3-D interpolation (quite time-consuming)

Comparison with observations WRF Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

Comparison with observations FAAM Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

WRF Slight difference in bearing. Modelled centre of plume ~ 1.5 km from that observed.

WRF modelling of Flight B987 18th Oct 2016 As before… WRF initialised with 0.5 degree NCEP GFS analyses 33 tracers added (see below) Simulation start (and tracer release): 06Z 18th Oct. Simulation end time: 0Z 21st Oct. 400 m resolution, 50 vertical levels. Underlying orography is USGS 30 arc-second.

All sources

All sources

FAAM Comparison with observations: assume Katla West is only source Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

WRF Comparison with observations: assume Katla West is only source Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

FAAM Comparison with observations: assume Katla West is only source Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

WRF Comparison with observations: assume Katla West is only source Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

FAAM Comparison with observations: assume Katla West is only source Where is this coming from? FAAM Katla West: range rings every 2 k m

FAAM OBS & WRF WINDS

10 m 100 m GFS winds

HYSPLIT Backwards dispersion Init. 16Z Current plot for 04Z

Results would appear to suggest there is another source E.g. Grimsvotn?? - Is there “industry” upstream? GRIMSVOTN (TRACER # 9)

Results for 08Z, 10Z, 12Z, 14Z, 16Z are online (1230 plots!) http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecrrb/Iceland_tracer/b987/ and subdirectories. Filenames e.g. trac_all_0030_2016-10-18_06:00:00 all volcanoes level (m AGL) date time (GMT) i.e. summation trac_01_0030_2016-10-18_06:00:00 volcano number 01