Fig. 1 Characterizing citation dynamics

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Fig. 1 Characterizing citation dynamics Fig. 1 Characterizing citation dynamics.(A) Yearly citation ci(t) for 200 randomly selected papers published between 1960 and 1970 in the PR corpus. Characterizing citation dynamics.(A) Yearly citation ci(t) for 200 randomly selected papers published between 1960 and 1970 in the PR corpus. The color code corresponds to each papers’ publication year. (B) Average number of citations acquired 2 years after publication (c2) for papers with the same long-term impact (c30), indicating that for high-impact papers (c30 ≥ 400, shaded area) the early citations underestimate future impact. (Inset) Distribution of citations 30 years after publication (c30) for PR papers published between 1950 and 1980. (C) Distribution of papers’ ages when they get cited. To separate the effect of preferential attachment, we measured the aging function for papers with the same number of previous citations (here ct = 20; see also supplementary materials S2.1). The solid line corresponds to a Gaussian fit of the data, indicating that P(ln∆t|ct) follows a normal distribution. (D) Yearly citation c(t) for a research paper from the PR corpus. (E) Cumulative citations ct for the paper in (D) together with the best fit to Eq. 3 (solid line). (F) Data collapse for 7775 papers with more than 30 citations within 30 years in the PR corpus published between 1950 and 1980. (Inset) Data collapse for the 20-year citation histories of all papers published by Science in 1990 (842 papers). (G) Changes in the citation history c(t) according to Eq. 3 after varying the λ, μ, and σ parameters, indicating that Eq. 3 can account for a wide range of citation patterns. D Wang et al. Science 2013;342:127-132 Published by AAAS