OVERVIEW OF CMAPS ADVANCED TRAVEL MODEL CADRE Kermit Wies, Deputy Executive Director for Research and Analysis AMPO Modeling Group, November 2010

Why Advance the CMAP Models? O Answer modern urban planning questions O How do people arrange their activities? O What factors affect their choices? O How sensitive are they to change? O Keep our methods state-of-the art O Advanced models underway at most large MPOs O Take advantage of research partnerships O Show off

Who is the CMAP Modeling Cadre? O The (growing) team of advanced modeling experts that contribute to CMAPs advanced model system O Original 5 members authored the Strategic Plan for Advanced Model Development O Two consultant contracts for Freight and Pricing have been issued O Federal research collaborations underway

CMAPs Strategic Plan for Advanced Model Development O Introduction O Model management principles O Three Chapters O Policy Response O Data Development O Computing Environment O Two Appendices O Behavioral model integration O Demand/Supply model integration

CMAPs Model Management Principles O Ultimate Goal: Complete activity and travel microsimulation O Incremental coupling : agent-based demand and supply O Persistent attention to model integration (the science) Model developers:

O Ongoing activity and travel survey program O Ongoing performance data acquisition O Regional planning indicators O Active planning priorities (the product) the customer: CMAPs Model Management Principles

CHAPTER 1: POLICY RESPONSE O Two major sections: O Policy analysis requirements O Advanced models response capabilities

Policy Analysis Requirements O Regional Comprehensive Plan (Go To 2040) O Livable communities O Regional mobility O Human capital O Efficient governance O Transportation Investments and Strategies O Air quality conformity O Major capital projects O Freight

Advanced models response capabilities First GenerationSecond Generation Population Synthesis Zonal Detail Network Detail Long Term Choices Activity-based Tours Freight System Network Assignment Economy and Land Use Any policy analysis requiring alternatives evaluation or forecasting should start here. Basic computational modules Module coupling and integration

CHAPTER 2: DATA DEVELOPMENT O Three major sections: O Data required by advanced model features O Suggested data resources O Data development program

Data required by advanced model features Survey DataSpatial DataNetwork Data Internal personal travel External travel Visitor travel Airport travel Freight agents Traffic microsimulation Bike/Ped agents Data development needed for an advanced model should start here. Ongoing survey program Coded and complete

Data Resource Requirements O Survey Data O Household and visitor diaries O External and airport intercepts O Business enterprises, commodity flows, intermodal O Spatial Data O Base and projections for: O population, housing, employment, school, parking, hotels, tourist O Network Data O Full streets for GIS interpretation O Coded for static and dynamic assignment : O Highway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight O Traffic and ridership data O counts, speed, travel time, queues for validating: O autos, trucks, transit, pedestrian, bicycles, external, intermodal

Data Development Program O Internal ongoing survey work program O Freight business models O Census O Purchase commercial datasets O Data exchange with managers and operators

CHAPTER 3: COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT O Algorithms, calculations and procedures O Effective software and hardware solutions

Algorithms, calculations and procedures O Calculating activity patterns O Computationally efficient O Individual decision making and interactions O Continuous variation in coefficients O Tour-based travel modeling O Bi-directional variation O Spatial chaining behavior O Challenges remain O Practical logsum computation O Continuous network level-of-service and equilibrium

Effective Software and Hardware Solutions O Examples of: O Common modeling framework O General software architecture O CPU distribution and threading O Hardware configurations O Staffing and qualifications

TWO APPENDICES ON MODEL INTEGRATION O Intra Activity-based model integration O Focuses on problem of modeling simultaneous or sequence-independent choices within different AB frameworks O Inter demand – supply model integration O Focuses on problem of exchange of valid level-of-service and activity-based information between demand and supply frameworks.