Southern Africa Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (SAAMIIP)

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Presentation transcript:

Southern Africa Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (SAAMIIP)

Assessment of progress Crop modelling – APSIM, AquaCrop and DSSAT calibrated for maize (four sentinel sites) – DSSAT for Sugarcane (+APSIM, AquaCrop?) (three sentinel sites) + some impacts analysis complete – AquaCrop for sweet potato (one site) – DSSAT Sorghum (one sentinel site) – DSSAT Wheat (two sentinel site) – Software tools for processing DSSAT input and output files

Progress… Climate – Formatted weather datasets for sentinel sites (AgMIP, APSIM, DSSAT formats) – NCEP re-analysis of baseline datasets – Some datasets from Alex Ruane (baseline+MERRA, some GCMs for a few sites) – Some software tools (e.g. solar radiation estimation, gap-filling, formatting tools)

Progress Economics – Worked through learning exercises – Identified sources of local socio-economic (GrainSA, AgriSA, SACGA, NVACS, PhD theses)

Adjustment of research plans to address requirements of integrated assessments Fast-track compatible with project plan, detail cemented at this workshop

Summary of outstanding team needs Nothing specific – looking forward to availability of IT tools Perhaps knowledge gaps will be identified during fast-track? R training for climate team members?

Publications-provisional titles and likely lead authors Jan fast-track: Integrated assessment of projected climate change impacts on Maize production in the central Free State, South Africa. (SA Plant and Soil?) (all) Crop production and adaptation strategies under changing climate in southern Africa (crop modellers, economists?) Investigating projected climate change impacts on water-use efficiency of key economic crops in southern Africa. (crop modellers)

More papers… Pulling climatic rabbits out of hats: an assessment of techniques for developing climate datasets in data- poor regions of southern Africa for climate change impact assessments (climate) Evaluating the economic impacts of projected climate change on cropping systems in southern Africa (economics) Exploring possible adaptation strategies for addressing climate-change related impacts on farming systems. (crop modelling) – Lead authors not yet clear.

Anticipated contributions to national and /or regional assessments Develop summaries for policy-makers for each country and submit to: – National bodies, e.g. National Disaster and Risk Unit in the SA, Dept of Agricultural; international bodies e.g. FANRPAN

Outreach plan StakeholderOutreachPlanJuly16-18.doc