BLAST Bringing Land and Sea Together 1/17/2019 BLAST Bringing Land and Sea Together Decision support for ICZM in a Climate Change Perspective Prof. Henning Sten Hansen Aalborg University Hirtshals 6 September 2010

1/17/2019 Setting the Frame The coastal zones are of strategic importance being home to a large percentage of European citizens Exposure of the coastal zones to the possible impacts of climate change The vulnerability of human and natural systems on the coasts has increased due to the continuing development and built-up in the immediate vicinity of the shoreline

Overview Climate change Integrated Coastal Zone management 1/17/2019 Overview Climate change Integrated Coastal Zone management Decision Support Systems Conclusions

1/17/2019 Climate change

Climate change and SRES 1/17/2019 Climate change and SRES The SRES scenarios are interpretations of four alternative storylines representing possible futures in two dimensions A focus on economic or environmental concern (the Development dimension) Focus on global or local development patterns (the Governance dimension)

CO2 Emissions Profiles under IPCC SRES scenarios 1/17/2019 CO2 Emissions Profiles under IPCC SRES scenarios

Effects of climate change 1/17/2019 Effects of climate change Flooding Soil erosion and leaching Coastal erosion

Mitigation and adaptation 1/17/2019 Mitigation and adaptation Mitigation is defined as the technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output Adaptation to climate change consists of initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against climate change effects

Winter precipitation % change (2071-2100) – (1961-1990) 1/17/2019 Winter precipitation % change (2071-2100) – (1961-1990) Source: DMI

Summer precipitation % change (2071-2100) – (1961-1990) 1/17/2019 Summer precipitation % change (2071-2100) – (1961-1990) Source: DMI

Integrated On- and Off-shore spatial planning - current state 1/17/2019 Integrated On- and Off-shore spatial planning - current state Policies and laws provide the legal framework for ICZM An integrated cross-sectional approach is needed Ex-ante scenarios and indicators are required to include climate change in the process High quality integrated data is needed

Conceptual model for Decision Support Tool 1/17/2019 Conceptual model for Decision Support Tool

1/17/2019 Relevant EU Policies A Communication on Integrated Coastal Zone Management: A Strategy for Europe (2000 ) The Water Framework Directive (2002) The Renewable Energy Directive (2001) The Floods Directive ( 2007) White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation (2009) The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008) The Habitat Directive (1992) Common Agricultural Policy reform (2003 ) Common Fishery Policy reform (2002) The INSPIRE Directive (2007)

Analysis and Modelling Tools 1/17/2019 Analysis and Modelling Tools Flood Risk Assessment Flooding due to Sea Level Rise Flooding along Rivers and Streams Land-use Modelling Change Impact Assessment Land-use scenarios Adaptation through Spatial Planning Impact Assessment

Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for the North Sea region 1/17/2019 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for the North Sea region General circulation models The PRUDENCE project (A2, B2) The ENSEMBLE project (A1B)

Flood Risk Assessment - Sea Level Rise 1/17/2019 Flood Risk Assessment - Sea Level Rise

Flood Risk Assessment - River flooding 1/17/2019 Flood Risk Assessment - River flooding

LUCIA Land Use Change Impact Assessment 1/17/2019 LUCIA Land Use Change Impact Assessment Sustainability ? ? ? Respond Output Scenarios : Future Land-use Indicators Input Land-use planning Zones and plans Socio-economic data GIS based land-use Simulation model

1/17/2019 LUCIA

1/17/2019 Example scenario

1/17/2019

Land-use and Climate Change Adaptation A spatial planning case study 1/17/2019 Land-use and Climate Change Adaptation A spatial planning case study The first (baseline) scenario is just a projection of current trends in land-use development Scenario A and B simulates an urban development as presumed in story lines A2 and B1, which – regarding climate change - represent the most pessimistic and optimistic of the SRES scenarios.

Flood risk and land-use - 1 1/17/2019 Flood risk and land-use - 1 Land-use in 2040 according to Policy scenario A. Black cells represent new urban areas. The cross-hatched and hatched areas represent the 80 cm and 280 cm flooding zones respectively

Flood risk and land-use - 2 1/17/2019 Flood risk and land-use - 2 Land-use in 2040 according to Policy scenario B. Black cells represent new urban areas. The cross-hatched and hatched areas represent the 80 cm and 280 cm flooding zones respectively

Spatial impact indicators 1/17/2019 Spatial impact indicators URBANFLOOD-1: Urban land use in areas risk of flooding due to future sea level rise (in hectares) URBANFLOOD-2: Urban land use in areas risk of flooding due to future sea level rise and stronger and more frequent storm surges (in hectares).

Number of vulnerable new cells (ha) for the two policy scenarios 1/17/2019 Number of vulnerable new cells (ha) for the two policy scenarios

1/17/2019 Number of vulnerable new cells (ha) for the two policy scenarios after adaptation

Conclusions Climate change is a major challenge for the whole globe 1/17/2019 Conclusions Climate change is a major challenge for the whole globe Coastal areas are perceived as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change Knowledge based ICZM can contribute to as well climate change adaptation as adaptation Scenario based decision support tools provide important input for forward looking ICZM High quality integrated land-sea data are imperative for reliable results

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! ! ! 1/17/2019 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! ! ! Henning Sten Hansen Professor, Aalborg University Copenhagen Institute of Technology Ballerup, Denmark E-mail: hsh@land.aau.dk www.blast-project.eu