The state of trade in Sweden

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Presentation transcript:

The state of trade in Sweden August 2011

Summary The Swedish retail sector as a whole managed to whether the financial crisis well. Low interest rates were an important factor. However, after an initial recovery in 2010, growth has been quite weaker than expected in the first half of 2011. The economic uncertainty in the world in combination with rising interest rates makes future consumption uncertain. Much depends on how economic policy will be performed to meet the new global situation. Will promised tax cuts go ahead? Contrariwise, will interest rates be raised at a lower pace?

Global uncertainty -Sweden best in class Budget deficit Debt / GDP Ireland -94 % 97 Greece -27 % 143 Spain -26 % 60 Great Britain -25 % 80 Portugal -22 % 93 EU -14 % 85 France 82 Sweden 0 % 40 -Sweden best in class

Sweden’s future looking bright Sweden out of recession Stable public finances Slight parlamental uncertainty In particular: tax cuts? Optimistic households Billion SEK 2010 Prog. 2010 2011 2012 Household consumption 1 600 519 3,4 2,9 3,0 Public consumption 898 332 2,5 2,0 1,0 Gross investments 591 084 7,1 9,5 7,0 Lagerinvesteringar 21 384 2,1 0,5 0,0 Export 1 651 660 11,0 10,5 5,0 Import 1 456 708 12,8 6,0 BNP 3 306 271 5,7 4,9

Optimism among Swedish households very high

Reasonable development so far this year Grocery: +1.3 % Consumer durables: +2,4 %

Interest rates on their way up… -Interest rates need to be doubled in order to achieve historic mean

Retailers’ confidence down Retailers’ future confidence

Grocers’ more optimistic about future Consumer durables

Prognosis Retail year 2011 so far weaker than expected. The prognosis for the year 2011 is a growth of 1.5 percent for grocers’ and 3 percent for consumer durables. The future development very much depends on economic policy. In particular, will promised taxz cuts go forward in view of the economic situation? In the other hand, will the Bank of Sweden refrain from raising interest rates for the same reason?