Forecast Verification

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Presentation transcript:

Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013 Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013 Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date. Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification F/C from 16May IC F/C from 16May IC CFSv2 GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification F/C from 26May IC F/C from 26May IC CFSv2 GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

Spatial pentad mean pattern 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 1-5 June, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 1-5 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 31May P2-lead, IC 26May P3-lead, IC 21May P4-lead, IC 16May CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 6-10 June, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 6-10 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 05 Jun P2-lead, IC 31May P3-lead, IC 26May P4-lead, IC 21May CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 7

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 11-15 June, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10 Jun P2-lead, IC 05 Jun P3-lead, IC 31May P4-lead, IC 26May CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 8

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 16-20 June, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 16-20 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 15 Jun P2-lead, IC 10 Jun P3-lead, IC 05 Jun P4-lead, IC 31May CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 9

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 21-25 June, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 21-25 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 20 Jun P2-lead, IC 15 Jun P3-lead, IC 10 Jun P4-lead, IC 05 Jun CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 10

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 26-30 June, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 26-30 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 25 Jun P2-lead, IC 20 Jun P3-lead, IC 15 Jun P4-lead, IC 10 Jun CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP 11

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 1-5 July, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 1-5 July, 2013 P1-lead, IC 30 Jun P2-lead, IC 25 Jun P3-lead, IC 20 Jun P4-lead, IC 15 Jun CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 6-10 July, 2013 Actual Anomaly Forecast valid for Period 6-10 July, 2013 P1-lead, IC 5 July P2-lead, IC 30 Jun P3-lead, IC 25 Jun P4-lead, IC 20 Jun CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc 7/11/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP CFS, CEI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP GFSbc, CEI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP CFS, MZI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP GFSbc, MZI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP CFS, NEI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP GFSbc, NEI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP CFS, NWI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP GFSbc, NWI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP CFS, SPI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP GFSbc, SPI 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS 16 May IC 21 May IC 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 26 May IC 31 May IC 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 5 Jun IC 10 Jun IC 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 20 Jun IC 15 Jun IC (OBS is for 20 days only) 7/6/2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP