María I. Travasso (INTA)

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Presentation transcript:

María I. Travasso (INTA) Expected impacts of climate change on CROP YIELDS in the Pampas region of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay LA27 María I. Travasso (INTA)

Climate Scenarios (30-60,70-00, LARS, HADLEY) DSSAT CROPS YIELD CENTURY PASTURES DSSAT CROPS YIELD

Relative Yield Changes Water Limited Potential Mz Sb Wh AZ LARS 7 17 -5 -1 -8 -19 HAD -2 -6 -3 PE 12 28 -11 -4 -10 -7 TR 33 43 3 -12 1 SR 15 19 5 11 PI 9 27 - -13 -17 PF 10 25 -16 LE 37 34 -9 -25

Mean Crop Yields Potential Water Limited

Potential Conditions

Projected Changes in Temperature Minimum Temperature Maximum Temperature

Changes (days) in Crops Growing Season

Water Limited Conditions

Projected Changes in Precipitation

MAIZE YIELD WL S. ROSA PERGAMINO ESTANZUELA P. FUNDO 30-60 70-00 LARS HAD

SOYBEAN YIELD WL S. ROSA PERGAMINO P. FUNDO ESTANZUELA 30-60 70-00 LARS HAD

WHEAT YIELD WL S. ROSA PERGAMINO P. FUNDO ESTANZUELA 30-60 70-00 LARS HAD

INCREASING CO2 > RUE > WUE > YIELDS

Increasing CO2

% YIELD CHANGES WHEAT MAIZE SOYBEAN

PASTURES

CENTURY Especially developed to deal with a wide range of cropping system rotations and tillage practices for system analysis of the effects of management and global change on productivity and sustainability of agroecosystems. This model integrates the effects of climate and soil driving variables and agricultural management to simulate carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics in the soil-plant system. Simulation of complex agricultural management systems including crop rotations, tillage practices, fertilization, irrigation, grazing, and harvest methods.

TESTING CENTURY IN URUGUAY