U.S. Japan China South Asia Security Environment U.S. Japan China South Asia
U.S. in Asia-Pacific Begins with the annexation of Hawaii and the Philippines in 1898 Strategic importance of Asia-Pacific has been rising to the U.S. Pacific War (1941-1945) Korean War (1950-1953) Vietnam War (1959-1975)
U.S. National Interest U.S. national interest in Asia Regional peace & stability presence of 100,000 military personnel Expansion of democracy Market economy Individual rights Counter-terrorism
Japan One of the most important components of U.S. security policy in Asia-Pacific region U.S.-Japan alliance survived 4 decades thanks to the Cold War United States-Japan Security Treaty of 1951 did not oblige U.S. to protect Japan revised in 1960 to add ``prior consultation”
U.S.-Japan Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in 1978 maintain a credible U.S. defense commitment to Japan ``the framework `to fight’ the new Cold War” Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation in 1997
Self-Defense Forces
Obstacles Obstacles to Japan’s use of military forces overseas: domestic political opposition Asian neighbor’s wartime memories economic recession aging population
China’s Reemergence Largest population Largest army Second largest economy Open to foreign trade trade volume $4 trillion in 2015 Foreign direct investment (2015) Net inflow of FDI $ ¼ trillion (behind only U.S.) outflow of FDI $146 billion (behind only U.S.)
Taiwan Relationship between Taipei and Beijing 1950s through 1970s: continuation of the GMD-CCP civil war (1927 - ) Beijing: ``to liberate Taiwan” Taipei: ``to gloriously retake the mainland” 1980s: Beijing: attracting investments from Taiwan Taipei: allowing investment on mainland
U.S. Strategic Ambiguity 3 Joint Communiqués between PRC and US in 1972, 1979, and 1982 Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 Strategic Ambiguity: ambiguous commitment to Taiwan’s defense ambiguous policy on arms sale to Taiwan ambiguity on the definition of ``One China”
Dual Deterrence No provocation on either side Maintain stability and status quo
South China Sea
South China Sea
India-Pakistan Wars 1947-1949, Kashmir 1965, Kashmir 1971, East Pakistan (Bangladesh)