State Climate Office Drought Update Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D. NDSU, AES State Climatologist Updated 9/20/2018

Countywide Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings August 2018 (42nd Driest) June-August 2018 (39th Wettest) Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term (1901-2000) average.

Countywide Temperature Anomalies and Rankings August 2018 (55th Warmest) June-August 2018 (21st Warmest) Blue/Brown colors indicate wetter/drier than long-term (1901-2000) average.

30-Day Precipitation Total Accumulation % of Normal (NDAWN Images)

Long Term Precipitation % of Normal 60 Days 90 Days (NDAWN Images)

(% Change from previous week) Cumulative % area (% Change from previous week) D2 16% (+3%) D3 <1% (+0%) D1 44% (+1%) None 16% (+1%) DO 84% (-1%)

State Coverage and Intensity

Drought Change One-week Change 4-week Change

Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 329 (Aug 8, 2006) 295 (Aug 8, 2017) 145 (+4) Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007) Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide) 10,606 (+145) 9,530 10,645 19,319 9663 2116 1714 *Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve *Akyuz (2017)

Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature Soil Moisture Departure from Normal 5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) (40mm = 1.6”)

Short-Range Forecast* Thu 1am, Sep 20 -Thu 1am, Sep 27 Thu 1am, Sep 13 -Thu 1am, Sep 27 *College of DuPage Next Generation Weather Lab (Posted with permission)

Medium Range Forecast* Week 3-4 Precipitation Week 3-4 Temperature *Climate Prediction Center

*Climate Prediction Center Long-Range Forecast* CPC Oct-Dec Precipitation Outlook CPC Oct-Dec Temperature Outlook *Climate Prediction Center

County-wide Agricultural Impacts for the week Climate Division Drought Impact by counties 1: North-West Ward: Moderately Dry. 2: North-Central McHenry: Severely Dry. Continued dry conditions are persisting through the area, this has prompted producers to start feeding early or start hauling water to grass that is still available for grazing.   Pierce. Moderately Dry. 3: North-East Grand Forks: Mildly Dry. North of HWY 2 areas are very dry. Crops have looked tough for the past month because of the lack of rain. Many producers have started soybean harvest because of the fast dry down. Yields are being hit with the early reports. 4: West Mercer: Moderately Dry. Only 0.75 inches of rainfall since July 4th. Oliver: Moderately Dry. The crops are advancing maybe 3 weeks ahead of schedule, drying up and decreased yields. Dunn: Moderately Dry. Lack of substantial rains has left most the county drier than average. Small rain showers has kept the fire index down this week along with cooler temperatures. Small grain harvest is almost over and chances of frost have increased. Pastures conditions are stressed but not as bad as last year. Hay has steadily been moving into the county as hay was short again this year. Cropland recently harvested is being grazed if available. 5: Central Wells: Moderately Dry. Pastures are done or nearing end of grazing unless producers have saved pastures they can go to. Crop maturity for soybeans and corn has progressed quickly because of dry conditions. 6: East-Central Griggs: Mildly Dry. 7: South-West Hettinger: Severely Dry. Corn Fields are drying up at the present development stage of the ear. The same is true with soybeans. Slope: Mildly Dry 8: South-Central  N/A 9: South-East LaMoure: Moderately Dry. Crops, pastures and fields are dry. Water levels of stock ponds are lower. Slow re-growth.