The educational gradient of the relationship between premarital cohabitation and duration of ended marriages for different cohorts. Inge Pasteels, University of Antwerp Dimitri Mortelmans, University of Antwerp

1 Introduction Methodological issue: Content issue: Respons- Selectivity of nonrespons - Validation Marginal distributions Overall statistics Content issue: Are changing patterns of union formation/dissolution in 2DT kind to all? Some characteristics of marital life and divorce have been shown to vary significantly across socio-economic groups. What about Flanders? Conditional distributions on education ISCED 0-1 ISCED 3-4 ISCED 5-6

2 Data Survey data of “Divorce in Flanders” (DiF); 2009-2010 Drawn sample: first marriages from 1971 to 2008 For each year, sample is proportional to the number of first marriages in the population But disproportionally drawn according to population divorce rates: 1/3 still intact first marriages versus 2/3 dissolved first marriages within each year Year of divorce was not a stratification criterion, but can be used as an indicator for validation Unweighted subsample of 2177 dissolved marriages in 3 marital cohorts 2 Data

3 Research questions Marital duration of dissolved marriages (RQ1) Is marital duration of dissolved marriages related to educational level and if so, does this relationship vary across different cohorts? (RQ2) For the sample of divorced people, is there a rise in the duration of premarital cohabitation over time and if so, do we observe an educational gradient within cohorts? (RQ3) Does premarital cohabitation impact the duration of dissolved marriages and if so, does this relationship vary across cohorts and for different educational levels?

4 Research design Randomly selected partner if data of both partners available Subsample of dissolved marriages: !!! Conclusions are conditionally on the event of divorce !!! “From marriage cohort to divorce cohort” Marital duration measured in months Different observation period for marital cohorts Divorces within 30 years after start of marriage of MC1 (1971-1978) Divorces within 20 years after start of marriage of MC2 (1979-1988) Divorces within 10 years after start of marriage of MC3 (1989-1998) SES-differentials: education

5 Methodology (RQ1/RQ2/RQ3) Descriptives (%, C% and median) and tests of significance - Marital duration within marital cohorts (RQ1/RQ3) - Occurrence and duration of premarital cohabitation between and within marital cohorts (RQ2) (RQ1/RQ3) Multivariate analyses: multinomial logit model - Stratification by marital cohort Dependent variable: marital duration recoded into 6 categories

6 Results RQ1 Marital duration of dissolved marriages (RQ1) Is marital duration of dissolved marriages related to educational level and if so, does this relationship vary across different cohorts? (RQ2) For the sample of divorced people, is there a rise in the duration of premarital cohabitation over time and if so, do we observe an educational gradient within cohorts? (RQ3) Does premarital cohabitation impact the duration of dissolved marriages and if so, does this relationship vary across cohorts and for different educational levels?

Multinomial logistic regression Stratification variable: marital cohort Dependent variable: marital duration recoded into 6 categories

Effect of education on recoded marital duration:

Effect of education on recoded marital duration:

Covariates Sex (1=men,0=women) Age at marriage Child in the marriage (1=yes,0=no) Education (1=ISCED 0-2; 2=ISCED 3-4; 3=ISCED 5-6) Parental divorce before start of marriage (1=yes, 0=no)

CONCLUSIONS RQ1 Descriptives: In most recent cohorts, there is weak evidence for increasing MD for higher compared to lowest educated people but no statistical significance Multinomial logistic model: In all MC having children increases significantly MD No effect of sex, age at start, parental divorce Education

CONCLUSIONS RQ1 Descriptives: In most recent cohorts, there is weak evidence for increasing MD for higher compared to lowest educated people but no statistical significance Multinomial logistic model: In all MC having children increases significantly MD No effect of sex, age at start, parental divorce Education: same tendencies of increasing MD for higher educated but only significant effects in MC2 for the 2nd category of education and for MD between 3 and 15 years

6 Results RQ2 Marital duration of dissolved marriages (RQ1) Is marital duration of dissolved marriages related to educational level and if so, does this relationship vary across different cohorts? (RQ2) For the sample of divorced people, is there a rise in (the duration of) premarital cohabitation over time and if so, do we observe an educational gradient within cohorts? (RQ3) Does premarital cohabitation impact the duration of dissolved marriages and if so, does this relationship vary across cohorts and for different educational levels?

Educational differentials within cohorts: CONCLUSIONS RQ2 Over time: Strong increase of occurrence of premarital cohabitation Comparing MC2 and MC3, duration of premarital cohabitation increases Educational differentials within cohorts: Equivalent occurrence of premarital cohabitation for all educational levels Data suggest positive association between education and duration of premarital cohabitation but only border significance for MC2

7 Results RQ3 Marital duration of dissolved marriages (RQ1) Is marital duration of dissolved marriages related to educational level and if so, does this relationship vary across different cohorts? (RQ2) For the sample of divorced people, is there a rise in (the duration of) premarital cohabitation over time and if so, do we observe an educational gradient within cohorts? (RQ3) Does premarital cohabitation impact the duration of dissolved marriages and if so, does this relationship vary across cohorts and for different educational levels?

Multinomial logistic analysis CONCLUSIONS RQ3 Descriptives Only for MC2, cohabitation has a significant effect on marital duration: shorter marital durations for marriages with cohabitation Not for MC3: selectivity hypothesis on the effect of premarital cohabitation on union dissolution? Within educational levels MC3: no variation MC2: shorter marital durations after cohabitation for lower and middle educated people but no significant differences Multinomial logistic analysis Same results for education and other covariates No significant effect for cohabitation

8 Summary Preliminary conclusions on marital duration of dissolved marriages Methodological issue: Validation Some marginal distributions clearly show well-known trends over time (premarital cohabitation) Other marginal distributions (distribution on divorce cohorts) have to be compared to population statistics for the final sample, after the end of the datacollection Content issue: socio-economic differentials Trends known from international literature are more or less reproduced in Flanders but timing can differ according to Flemish context

The educational gradient of the relationship between premarital cohabitation and duration of ended marriages for different cohorts. Inge Pasteels, University of Antwerp Dimitri Mortelmans, University of Antwerp