APPLYING DIVERSIFIED ROADMAP CONCEPT AT VTT, FINLAND The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES IN A RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION: APPLYING DIVERSIFIED ROADMAP CONCEPT AT VTT, FINLAND Ahlqvist, Toni, Halonen, Minna, Eerola, Annele, Kivisaari, Sirkku, Kohl, Johanna, Koivisto, Raija & Myllyoja, Jouko VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Introduction Rationale for building systemic capacities CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Introduction Rationale for building systemic capacities Organisational and geographical scales of innovation systems are more interlinked Systemic transformations flow through this faster than before Flows have complex effects, harder to anticipate Research and technology organisations (RTOs) should develop two systemic capacities 1) partial structural openness and fluidity endorsing rapid alterations in the organisational structures; 2) horizontal and pervasive anticipatory culture that builds up an internal future-oriented agency, i.e. proactive and bottom-up participatory approach which leads to action

Interplay of past, present and future knowledge in an organisation CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Interplay of past, present and future knowledge in an organisation

Changes in the business environment Customers’ innovation processes CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... VTT’s parallel innovation process model: towards a future-oriented model Changes in the business environment Customers’ innovation processes Continuous foresight through expert communities and checkpoints Development of business models Applications research Foresighting Technology research and development VTT’s research and innovation programme Adapted from Koppinen, Lammasniemi & Kalliokoski 2010

5. Identifying single strategic elements in roadmap structure CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Using roadmaps in strategy processes 3. Demand articulation: description of common understanding about future societal and market needs 4. Visionary strategizing: aligning societal drivers, markets, solutions and technologies in a timeframe 5. Identifying single strategic elements in roadmap structure 2. Identifying societal needs that should guide the technological development 1. Creation of a common vision 6. Identifying logical temporal sequences in selected topic, e.g. technologies

Roadmapping and systemic transformation capacity CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Roadmapping and systemic transformation capacity Key concepts Future-oriented agency can be defined as a strategic capacity of an organisation or a community to construct feasible targets towards the future through shared dialogue, and also to implement actions on this basis. We suggest that future-oriented agency is in key role when constructing systemic transformation capacities in any context. Roadmap knowledge space here refers to a niche in an organisation or in a community in which a future-oriented agency can be mobilised. Knowledge spaces therefore depict key spheres in which the systemic transformation capacity is realised. Roadmap scope refers to the level to which roadmap is targeted. Scope refers to a more traditional insight of roadmapping methodology that separates e.g. technology roadmaps and market roadmaps. Our model separates roadmaps with R&D scope and roadmaps with systemic scope.

Diversified roadmap concept I: knowledge spaces CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Diversified roadmap concept I: knowledge spaces The first knowledge space is technology space that basically covers a domain of technical knowledge, e.g. different technologies, gadgets and development, cutting through three temporal scales. The second is the social/actor space that covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different actors inside and outside the organisation. This space covers organisational development, markets and also more macro-scale societal phenomena (drivers, megatrends). It should be noted that differences between these two spaces are mainly heuristic, because technologies are naturally formed in social interaction as well as markets are created by socio-technical relationships. However, in the context of RTO (with emphasis on technology development), this separation is in our opinion quite credible. The third knowledge space is strategy space that tries to take a holistic view on the research object and perceive it as a strategic entirety. In this space, the technology space and social/actor space are linked to a strategic perspective of future. The fourth knowledge space is visionary space. This space is devoted to exploration of futures in different scales of certainty. Our model starts with a presupposition that in technology and social/actor spaces the exploration of more radical futures is usually restricted by the overall need to identify certain actions in the present, and therefore the exploration of the futures does not usually have a key role. However, in visionary space this exploration is the key issue. Therefore, in visionary space plausible and more implausible futures are characterised. In the ideal model we have depicted e.g. disruptive futures (i.e. phenomena that change the name of the game), alternative futures (i.e. trajectories that are alternatives to the hegemonic futures), ‘black swans’ (i.e. utterly unsuspected phenomena that have significant impacts) and unlikely futures (i.e. futures that are not seen as credible, yet they have significance in the imaginary of the present options).

Diversified roadmap concept II: roadmap scopes CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Diversified roadmap concept II: roadmap scopes

Case example I: Building Services Roadmap CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Case example I: Building Services Roadmap Our first example is a roadmapping process that aimed at renewing a line of competence that is already rather well-built at VTT: the development of building services technologies and solutions. In this process, a key reason to build a roadmap was to form a crystallised view to, firstly, the technological competencies and novelties researched and developed at VTT and, secondly, to initiate awareness of possibilities in a sector that is perceived as quite conservative and reluctant to absorb new technological solutions. In the context of creating systemic transformation capacities, the process can be categorised as R&D 1 type of technology roadmap that aimed at contribution in technology space and social/actor space.

Case example II: SSB network roadmap CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Case example II: SSB network roadmap Our second example integrates roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT. Service research is an emerging field of research requiring intensive cooperation across disciplines and lines of business. In order to create the Service Science and Business (SSB) network we combined foresight and organisational learning methods in a workshop process. During the workshops some thirty VTT researchers and management representatives were able to find a shared understanding which led up to a service research strategy for VTT. The workshops were designed to facilitate dialogue between the users of the research, potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies, and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen et al 2009).

CONSTRUCTING SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION CAPACITIES ... Conclusions Paper argued that RTOs should develop should develop two systemic capacities: structural openness and fluidity & horizontal and pervasive anticipatory culture Organisation: a continuum of past, present and future knowledge Towards a future-oriented parallel innovation model at VTT Contribution of roadmapping to the building of systemic capacities Knowledge spaces in an RTO Technology space; Social / actor space; Strategic space; Visionary space Roadmap scopes Singular Single technology -> action steps Single organisation -> practical conclusions Systemic Business perspective -> business decisions Policy perspective -> policy conclusions Examples: Building Service roadmap and SSB network roadmap