THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY Protecting and preserving the PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES of the Blue (water) Planet.

A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD 6.6 billion people, and growing while… Living and competing in an interconnected global economy, Producing $60 trillion of products each year, and Facing many kinds of complex disasters every year that are related to the 3 Ss, 5Es, and 1H.

THE 3 Ss SAFETY (from recurring natural hazards) SECURITY SUSTAINABILITY

THE FIVE Es ECONOMY ENERGY ENVIRONMENT ECOLOGY EDUCATION

THE 1 H HEALTH CARE

A DISASTER is the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes,...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER PEOPLE COMMUNITY RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS IGNORANCE APATHY DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES UNWISE DECISIONS

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21 ST CENTURY Poverty Chronic hunger Health care needs Increasing risk of pandemic disease Large-scale migration of people Endangered plant and animal life Conflict and terrorism

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21 ST CENTURY Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards Threats related to global climate change Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

OUR POSSIBLE OH NO! LEGACY OF THE 21 ST CENTURY Unless we design and implement a realistic new strategy for disaster prevention, OUR problems may grow worse so rapidly that we reach many tipping points, before we realize it and share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth.

A SOLUTION SET: THE FRAMEWORK OF SUSTAINABILITY To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen To build capacity at the community level for monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation To build equity in all sectors of the community To inform, educate, and train

WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- SO, LETS DO IT! All of us working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions--- within OUR administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- and reach the goal of community sustainability.

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY TOWARDS: INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND ADAPTATION

THINKING OUT OF OUR BOXES WILL FACILITATE ENLIGHTENMENT AND ENABLEMENT ENABLEMENT AND CAUSE A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR PROFESSIONALS TO WORK STRATEGICALLY ON LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SCALES.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO MONITOR, MITIGATE AND ADAPT TO SOCIETAL PROBLEMS POSED BY COMPLEX GLOBAL DISASTERS ON LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL SCALES

TOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY TOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY THE KNOWLEDGE BASE Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation Gateways to a Deeper Understanding Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/Communication Vulnerability and Risk Characterization Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations Situation Data Bases Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources Cause & Effect Relationships CAPACITY BUILDING Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable Partnerships Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community CONTINUING EDUCATION Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences Enlighten Communities on Their Risks Build Strategic Equity Through MMA Scenarios Multiply Partnerships by Regioal/global Twinning Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Monitoring, Mitigation, and Adaptation (MMA) on local and regional scales

THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA) THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA) EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS EXPERIENCES WITH MONITORING AND WARNING EXPERIENCES WITH DISASTER SCENARIO PLANNING EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS (2011 AND BEYOND)

FACTORS THAT FACILITATE A PARADIGM SHIFT PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET. THE COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF MOVING FROM THINKING TO ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE KINDS OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (ACTIONS) THAT ARE NEEDED.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY NTEGRATING THE BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES AND ASSETS.

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN ACHIEVE THE KIND OF PARADIGM SHIFT NEEDED TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY EACH LOCAL COMMUN ITY IN EVERY REGION.

SIX THINKING HATS FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT

WHITE HAT: WHAT ARE THE FACTS? YELLOW HAT: WHAT ARE THE LOGICAL POSITIVE OUTCOMES OF EACH ACTION? BLACK HAT: WHAT ARE THE LOGICAL NEGATIVE OUTCOMES OF EACH ACTION?

SIX THINKING HATS FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT RED HAT: HOW URGENT IS EACH ACTION? GREEN HAT: IS THIS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR US? BLUE HAT: WHAT ARE THE ELEMENTS AND TIMELINES OF OUR STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANS FOR SEIZING THIS OPPORTUNITY?

SIX ACTION SHOES FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT

SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A PARADIGM SHIFT BROWN BROGUE: FINDING THE RIGHT PARTNERS/PERSON FOR EACH JOB! WHITE SNEAKERS: A COMMISSION TO GATHER AND ANALYZE ALL THE FACTS! NAVY BLUE SHOES: CREATING STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANS THAT GIVE ALL PARTNERS A COMMON AGENDA!

SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A PARADIGM SHIFT ORANGE RUBBER GUM SHOES: DOING WHAT IS NEEDED WHEN IT COUNTS THE MOST! TAN HOUSE SHOES: HAVING A SENSE OF URGENCY. PURPLE RIDING BOOTS: LEADERSHIP!

YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK ANTICIPATORY DECISIONS BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR: MONITORING MITIGATION ADAPTATION COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY

INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE FRAGILITIES A Restless EarthThe Cause of Natural Phenomena that interact with PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES Earthquakes Tsunamis Volcanic eruptions Landslides

INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE FRAGILITIES Extreme Storms---- Natural Phenomena that interact with PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES Tropical Storms Hurricanes Typhoons Tornadoes Noreasters

INTERACTIONS THAT CAN INCREASE FRAGILITIES Actions of a community---To increase Quality of Life Build Economic Development Create Land Control Water Expand Cities Facilitate Transportation

INTERACTIONS THAT CAN INCREASE FRAGILITIES Mankinds Actions--- can have expected and unexpected consequences Deforestation Pollution Conflict

INTERACTIONS THAT CAN INCREASE FRAGILITIES A Warming World ---with its spectrum of natural and unnatural causes Increasing Temperatures Diminishing Polar Ice Shrinking Glaciers Rising Sea Level