The Rate of Change is Changing Emerging Technologies Beyond Government Control SENEDIA Tech Talk Newport, RI June 22, 2017 Nevin Carr Rear Admiral, US Navy (Ret) Senior Vice President

Trend: U.S. Defense Investment (RDT&E + Procurement) FY13 $B 300 -43% 250 -51% -50% 200 150 100 Long-term trend line – real growth rate of 1% 50 Past Future FY50 FY60 FY70 FY80 FY90 FY00 FY10 FY20 Peak-to-peak cycle time 18 years 22 years MIL-ZZN691-05072012E-53514/DF

Trend: Smaller Numbers of Expensive, Specialized Systems NKC-AAA123-20121107- Trend: Smaller Numbers of Expensive, Specialized Systems Inventory Investment USN Investment vs active ship inventory1 Ships FY13 $B USAF Investment vs active aircraft inventory2 Aircraft FY13 $B 80 100 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 1 Includes active battleships, carriers, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, LCS, submarines, command ships, mine warfare ships, patrol ships, amphibious ships and auxiliary ships 2 Includes active USAF bombers, fighter / attack aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, tankers, transports, trainers, search and rescue aircraft, liaison aircraft, special research aircraft and utility / observation / other aircraft SOURCE: FY2013 Green Book, Naval History and Heritage Command, Mitchell Institute

SOURCE: National Science Foundation

The Gartner “Hype Cycle”