Illinois Model User Group Meeting November 8, 2018 Phillip J. Mescher, AICP, CPM Iowa Department of Transportation Office of Systems Planning Ames, Iowa 515-239-1629 Phil.mescher@dot.iowa.gov

Goals Develop model standards and expectations Establish Consistency among models Enhance Model Components Publish Model Policy and Procedure Manual Enhance DOT travel demand modeling assistance to Iowa’s 9 MPOs MTMUG guide standards development

Iowa Modeling History 1960’s & 1970’s 1980’s & 1990’s 1990’s to 2010’s DOT Responsible Mainframe Computer Planpac 1980’s & 1990’s MPOs Responsible Desktop Computers and Software Tranplan & QRS II 1990’s to 2010’s DOT providing more assistance and responsibility

What is happening? MPO modeling staff turnover MPO model staff are now all junior level as best DOT continual training and retaining of staff Causes? Pay, other opportunities, steep learning curve, etc. Takes a couple of years modeling to become proficient DOT not immune! Dramatic Increase in Demands on MPO staff LRTP, TIP, UPWP, PPP, CMP, Transit, Safety, Modeling, etc. MAP-21 Performance Measures Models at times put on “back-burner” In no time the MPO is behind the 8 ball on time

What is happening? Iowa DOT Assistance to MPOs Modeler Training MTMUG Model Rebuild Model Calibration/Validation Model Scenario Runs LRTP Corridor Projects Consistent Software – TransCAD (DOT subsidized) Peer Exchanges Hosting NHI Travel Modeling Class

What is happening? DOT has limitations also Consultant Assistance Staffing given workload requests DOT has staff turnover at times but fairly stable (until recently) Need more expertise in Transit mode share, TOD models, survey data processing, etc. Mesoscopic and Microscopic modeling Consultant Assistance At times MPOs have hired consultants to help with their modeling (and LRTPs) No standards to follow Results in lack of consistency among models DOT is left to answer the questions about inconsistency

NCHRP Report 288 Report Conclusion: Report 288 highlights the fact that policy makers must have the ability to make informed decisions about future investments and public policies for the transportation system. Based on the investigation of the 288 committee, it was determined the current models and modeling practice is not adequate for many of the tasks to which they are being applied. They recommend that steps must be taken to improve current and future practice in metropolitan travel forecasting. Report Conclusion: More state support to modeling is needed.

What is happening? Several States getting more involved to help MPOs and provide an architecture for standardization. Florida Wisconsin Texas Virginia Iowa Etc. Traffic forecasts are critical to designing projects.

ISMS A standardized model structure to promote a certain level of consistency while allowing for flexibility Not all MPOs are the same; even in Iowa Consistency leads to enhanced credibility Provision of continuing model development, training and application support Many states are enacting this approach to modeling to ensure model credibility and consistency

Mission Statement Provide a consistent, comprehensive and standardized framework of best practices for the development and application of travel demand modeling and traffic forecasting tools. The tools will facilitate collaborative use in planning and designing transportation systems and facilities for the State of Iowa, promote sharing, and encourage continuing cooperation and good practice across the state.

Who’s Been Involved? We are embracing the 3C Planning Process We’ve included: FHWA (Best Practice) Midwest Travel Model User Group Iowa DOT Modeling Team HNTB Consulting Engineers Michael Baker International Howard R. Green Iowa MPOs Wisconsin DOT Nebraska DOT

MTMUG Modeler Survey We developed a survey for all Iowa MPO modelers, DOT staff and consultants

MTMUG Modeler Survey Additional questions touched on: Model understanding and proficiency. Identification of problems encountered working with model. Asked for perspective of their agency role in modeling How do they develop and analyze projects for LRTP? How do they use model for project development? How often is model updated? How would they like to use the model in the future? Etc.

Goals of ISMS Based on current and best practices and Iowa TDM user Survey: Institutionalize the use of TDM’s in the MPO planning and prioritization processes; Increase technical capabilities and understanding of MPO staff with respect to TDM development and application; Develop clear guidance and expectations with respect to the roles and responsibilities of travel demand modelers; Achieve a consistent approach to travel demand modeling across the state of Iowa’s 9 MPOs; and Implement ongoing development and maintenance practices to ensure continual readiness and currency of MPO TDM’s.

Policies and Procedures Iowa Modeling Policy & Procedure Manual Lays out model structure, protocols, procedures Model version management SE Data Forecast Process/Review Identifies Input Data Integration with Iowa Statewide Model (External Analysis) Determines Model Validation Expectations Describes Best Practices Coordination with Iowa DOT Guidance on Model Application for Projects and LRTP Project Wise for File Keeping

Model Process Flow Chart

Prototype Model (Ames) Test model developed using the Ames model TransCAD platform Includes Time of day Transit Robust Network for Highway and Transit Intersection control attributes Parking allocation Parcel Based Trip Generation Income stratification Land use specific Gravity Model Capacity Based Traffic Assignment

Parcel Based Trip Generation Trip Generation Weak Point in Most Models Data Quality! Census Based pretty good Employment – not so much IWD Story Infogroup Story NCHRP 08-36/Task 127 Employment Data Parcel Based – Data Quality

Parcel Data GIS layer with data pertaining to size and use of buildings on parcel. Characteristics of each land use explicitly modeled including trip rates, income splits, time of day. Used in lieu of employment data. Will require coordinated effort with local government(s).

Roles and Responsibilities Team Effort MPO – DOT – Consultant Assistance Model update kickoff meetings held Discuss who can do what and by when Tracking sheet for responsibilities and milestones Each MPO has varying time availability and skill sets

MPO Staff Skill Sets MPO staff skills needed for ISMS implementation: GIS (portions can be conducted within ESRI) Data processing (Excel and TransCAD primarily) Reasonableness checks on TDM elements Investigative skills (why am I getting this result?) Understanding of transportation planning process Technical writing (narrative of unique inputs and findings, impacts to LRTP) Skills NOT needed: Advanced travel demand modeling expertise Advanced TransCAD and programming expertise

DOT Support to MPO’s DOT staff support is flexible and dependent upon MPO need. Mostly focus on: Programmatic and technical guidance on ISMS steps Access to and analysis support of DOT data sets DOT to lead efforts on select technical modeling steps Validation of all modeling steps TransCAD technical assistance

How did we accomplish this? Consultant Services Task Orders Policy and Procedure Manual Model Prototype Assist with full model rebuilds including calibration/validation to ISMS standards Training/assistance for DOT Individualized Training Workshops On-the-fly Q and A Etc MPO staff maintain ability to work with models at different levels of expertise Basic Moderate Advanced

Where are we now? Implementation Waterloo/Cedar Falls MPO – Implemented Des Moines – in process Cedar Rapids – in process Quad Cities – in process Ames – kicked off Sioux City – kicked off Omaha/Council Bluffs – in process Dubuque – Coming soon