Rural-urban Migration and Poverty in Kenya: is Agriculture the Answer?

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
EC 936 ECONOMIC POLICY MODELLING LECTURE 5: MODELS OF TRADE AND TRADE POLICY: CGE PERSPECTIVES ON TRADE LIBERALIZATION.
Advertisements

Skill formation and exports: are we generating the required qualifications for development? Rossana Patrón María Inés Terra University of Uruguay Paper.
In developing countries, agriculture provides employment and livelihood for the majority of the population, providing work to more than 75 per cent of.
ZEW Economic Effects of Co-ordinated and Non-co-ordinated Permit Schemes in an EU-Bubble An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis with the GEM-E3 Model.
Agricultural Economics
Macroeconomic Policies Dr. George Norton Agricultural and Applied Economics Virginia Tech Copyright 2009 AAEC 3204.
Chapter 8: Urbanization & Rural-Urban Migration
MACROECONOMICS BY CURTIS, IRVINE, AND BEGG SECOND CANADIAN EDITION MCGRAW-HILL RYERSON, © 2010 Chapter 4 Measuring National Economic Activity and Performance.
Global Trade Analysis Project Analysis of Free Trade Areas (FTAs) in Southern Africa.
Macroeconomics. 1. Circular flow – the movement of output and income from one sector of the economy to another.
Reconciling Trade Liberalisation with Human Security Goals. By: Anagha Joshi.
The impact of the global financial crisis on the Asia-Pacific region
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA By Sudarno Sumarto Asep Suryahadi The SMERU Research Institute October 2003.
Policy Context Module 2: Analysis of Policy Context.
Growth of the Economy And Cyclical Instability
FAO ROLES OF AGRICULTURE (ROA) PROJECT Socio-Economic Analysis and Policy Implications of the Roles of Agriculture in Developing Countries NATIONAL REPORT,
1 School of Oriental & African Studies MDG1 & food security: critical challenges Andrew Dorward School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.
1 MICROECONOMIC REFORM VCE ECONOMICS. 2 Microeconomic reform refers to government policies which aim to improve the individual sectors of the markets.
Distributional Effects of Trade Policy Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso University of Göttingen (Germany) and University Jaume I (Spain)
Pro Poor Growth Manmohan Agarwal Centre for International Governance Innovation* * This research is part of a research project supported by the ORF.
Chapter 8 Slide 1 Copyright © 2003 Pearson Education, Inc.
China’s socio-economic development Previously, China was considered as a country with inexhaustible labor; but not any longer. The biggest.
Poverty and Social Impact Analysis: a User’s Guide – Economic tools Nairobi, 6-8 th December 2006.
Trade and inequality WTO-ILO Workshop, 31 August 2009 Sangheon Lee Coordinator for Research and Policy Conditions of Work and Employment Programme ILO.
Deepening Integration in SADC - Macroeconomic Policies and Their Impact South African Country Study 3rd – 6th April 2006 Zambezi Sun Hotel, Livingstone,
FAO Project GCP/SYR/006/ITA Workshop - Damascus, 1-2 July 2008 Agriculture and Economic Reform in Syria: Impacts on Poverty and Inequality Benedetto Rocchi.
MIRPAL CONFERENCE ON REMITTANCES Remittances and economic development: the case of Kosovo 1 Borko Handjiski Economist Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan 11 th of.
The Challenges of Youth Employment in ACP Countries: A Global Perspective Brussels Briefings 16 th June 2010 Bruno Losch Youth and Rural Development in.
# 1 DEVELOPMENT AND EMPLOYMENT: A POLICY FRAMEWORK Proposed by Fred Fluitman, Presented by Mostefa Boudiaf International Training Centre of the ILO Turin,
Structural Implications of Economic Liberalization on Agriculture and Rural Development in Kenya PAUL GAMBA.
AS Economics PowerPoint Briefings Introduction to Macroeconomics AS Economics.
Introduction to Supply-side Policies Demand-side policies have one major weakness: they are not effective at promoting long-run economic growth. PL SRAS.
Research Strategy. 2 Research Strategy: Basic Premises The future of Indian agriculture depends on successfully facing the challenges of greater market.
Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration: Theory and Policy
Marketing margins and trade policy reform
Business and the Economic Environment
Lecture 2 Macroeconomic Data and Variables
PERSPECTIVES ON ENHANCING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGY THROUGH MARKET ACCESS INTRODUCTION.
Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) Modeling Toolkit
3rd ReNAPRI Conference, Nairobi,
Microfinance and small holder farmers productivity
3.5.1 and unit content Students should be able to:
RPES Project Support Meeting
Rural-urban Migration and Poverty in Kenya: is Agriculture the Answer?
Challenges and Opportunities of Private Sector Development in SSA
Macroeconomics Issues and Measurement Chapter 15
Rural-urban Migration and Poverty in Kenya: is Agriculture the Answer?
A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development: Datasets of Interest
Transformation from Agrarian to Industrialized Modern Society
Introduction to Macroeconomics
Overview of Macroeconomics
Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration: Theory and Policy
Business Economics (ECO 341) Fall: 2012 Semester
Lecture 8: Rural Development Policy and Gender Issues
Mr JH Malan, Dr EA Steenkamp, Prof R Rossouw and Prof W Viviers
Promoting the Gender Equality MDG: Women’s Economic Opportunities
Session 1 “Gender differentiated patterns of work”
Introduction to Macroeconomics
Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa
Rural-urban Migration and Poverty in Kenya: is Agriculture the Answer?
Covenant University, Ota
Fiscal Space And Public Spending on Children in Burkina Faso
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION
Shared-Growth and Job Creation: Exploring Employment and Shared Growth Linkages in Madagascar Margo Hoftijzer.
Urbanization and Rural-Urban Migration: Theory and Policy
Youth and Rural Development in ACP countries
Introduction to Macroeconomics
Transition and inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Poverty and Social Impact Analysis: a User’s Guide – Economic tools
TOPIC 2 RURAL AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT
Presentation transcript:

Rural-urban Migration and Poverty in Kenya: is Agriculture the Answer? Maria Sassi The aim of my presentation is the understanding of the impact of rural-urban migration on economic development and poverty in Kenya and the role ot technical efficiency change in agriculture.

Importance of the topic Rural-urban migration Sub-Saharan Africa Social, economic, political problems of major significance Rural-urban migration is of particular concern in Developing countries and particularly in SSA where the migration of hundreds of millions of rural people to cities in these chiefly agrarian countries is creating the social, economic and political problems of major significance. For many years the economic development literature has viewed rural-urban migration favourably, but today, it is also recognised that the phenomenon should go with suitable policy intervention in rural areas. Agrarian countries

Theoretical literature (1/2) Dual economy Models (1950s-1960s) Todarian Frameworks (1970s-1980s) New Economics of Labour Migration (form 1990s) The theoretical debate and its consequence policy recommendations can be articulated in three types of contributions. Those referred to:

New Economics of Labour Migration (2/2) Remittances allocation in rural areas Internal migration and rural development Rural development policies for non migrant MIGRATION POLICY GOAL Accommodate migration flows while preventing the widening of rural and urban imbalaces Agricultural policies

Focus of the analysis - Rural migrant: 70% of urban labour force; Specific policy interventions; Poverty: 54% & 80% in rural areas. Kenya The “growth sector” (24% GDP, 53% exports; 62% labour force); -Increase in productivity. Agriculture My analysis wants to contribute to this debate ad it focuses on: Kenya that provides a natural experiment to study rural-urban migration because rural migrants constitute a significant proportion of urban labour force, about 70%. And over time the phenomenon has been object of specific policy interventions mainly of Todarian nature: migration flows restrictions and urban wage subsidies. More recently, with the Poverty reduction strategy paper and the commitment of the country on the MDGs there has been a change of focus: agriculture is seen as the “growth sector” and it has been underlined the need for specific policies particularly aimed at increasing agricultural productivity. - CGE approach: the change of focus in theoretical literature support the shift from partial approaches for the analysis of rural urban migration policies the general equilibrium approaches able to understand how a set of policies affects income, outuput and employment in both urban and urban areas and sectors simultaneously. The CGE multisector model I have developed for Kenya accommodate the 2003 SAM elaborated in 2006 by Kiringai, Thurlow, Wanjale that I have duly reviewed according to the aim of the analysis; The IAKE-CGE model works simulation the interaction of various economic actors across markets as specified in the neoclasical GE theory. Impact of migration policies on income, output & employment in both urban and rural areas & sectors SIMULTANEOUSLY CGE approach 2003 SAM

10% rural skilled to urban skilled Simulations 10% rural skilled to urban skilled Rural-urban migration 10% rural semiskilled to urban semiskilled 10% rural unskilled to urban unskilled 10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function I have simulated two typologies of external shocks: The former refers to rural-urban migration; The latter technical efficiency change in agriculture. Technical efficiency change 50% increase in input specific efficiency of agricultural production function (agricultural, food industry, other industry and service inputs)

Rural - urban migration No significant impact

Households by expenditure decile 10% rural migration: Impact on income (% change) - Households by expenditure decile (1=low; 10=high)

Technical efficiency change 10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function

Impact on income - current prices (%) 10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function: Impact on income and consumption (% change) - Households by expenditure decile (1=low; 10=high) Impact on consumption - constant prices (%)

10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function Impact on gross product at factor costs (% change) Impact on rural labour Current prices (%) Wages (price index 1= base year)

10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function Impact on macroeconomic indicators (% change)

10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function Impact on domestic production and exports (% change)

Technical efficiency change 50% increase in input specific efficiency of agricultural production function

Impact on income (% change) Households by expenditure decile (1=low; 10=high)

Agricultural inputs Food industry inputs Industry other inputs Service inputs

Impact on macroeconomic indicators - current prices (% change)

Impact on gross product at factor costs - current prices (% change)

Conclusions

Conclusioni Attivazione processo di crescita complessivo Importanza del progresso tecnico Redditi delle famiglie agricole crescono meno di quelli delle non agricole Miglioramento del benessere delle famiglie Aumento delle diseguaglianze Problema del debito pubblico e del sostegno deficit della bilancia dei pagamenti Effetti depressivi del processo di accumulazione che accompagna il progresso tecnico Effetti su tassi di interesse e inflazione

Theoretical literature (1/3) Dual economy models - Initial stage of development; - Intensive agricultural economy; - Lack of capital & surplus of agricultural labour the needed manpower for industrialization. Todarian frameworks New Economics of labour migration Rural urban migration facilitation to favour economic take-off

Theoretical literature (1/4) - Understanding of the reasons of urban unemployment and its link with rural-urban migration Dual economy models Todarian frameworks - Migration flows restrictions; - Wage subsidies Uniform wage subsidies B-S; B Urban wage subsidies Compensations to rural areas H-T New Economics of Labour Migration Job creation in rural areas & inequalities F.

Theoretical literature (1/5) Support to R-U migration Increasing efficiency in job matches Dual economy models - Who, when and how to migrate Todarian frameworks - Internal migration and rural development Remittancies; Policies for rural development. New Economics of Labour Migration

Migration policies in Kenya a. Colonial period b. Post-colonial period Kenyatta presidency (1963-1979) Moi presidency (1979-2002) Kibaki presidency (from 2002)