Eve Gruntfest Norman, OK September 15,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm Warnings: A collaboration between stakeholders, the National Weather Service & the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Motivation Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways WAS way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab IS way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools

Participants Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government partners Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere), NOAA research folks Cross section of users - WAS * ISers & non WAS * ISers

What we know about warnings – Public response components Hear/receive Understand Believe Personalize Decide to act Respond The warning process is complex

A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch 92% 8% n=1031

I take flash flood warnings seriously n= % 8%

False alarm questions: Realizing its difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls N= 1047

Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding N = 1031

Warning project findings Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized The weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific user communities

WAS*IS weather & society * integrated studies CULTURE CHANGE Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program New culture change initiative since 2005

WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT… I dont know how & I dont know anyone else who does this kind of work

To change the weather enterprise so that social science is integrated into meteorological research & practice in comprehensive & sustained ways Weather & Society * Integrated Studies

What is WAS*IS? 1. Building an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders -- from the grassroots up --who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science Mostly early career folks! Capacity building –- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support

What is WAS*IS? 2. Providing opportunity to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods Concepts – initiating & building relationships, many publics, end-to-end-to-end Topics – risk communication, communicating uncertainty, vulnerability

The WAS*IS movement Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop 6 workshops so far Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (November 2005 & March 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) 2006 Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (January-February 2007) 2007 Summer WAS*IS (July 2007) Summer 2008 WAS*IS held August 8-15 Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission - Grand total of 172 WAS*ISers

WAS*IS THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY Recognizing WAS*ISers talent & research--this is just a small sample Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society problem definition social science research agendas & end-to-end-to-end process

Local government agencies (e.g., floodplain management) End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers Professional associations Private engineering consultants Private land developers Public (e.g., homeowners) Private businesses Local government elected officials State & regional governments Federal government Researchers Morss, R. E., Ralph, F. M., 2007 Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency manager during CALJET and PACJET Weather and Forecasting 22 doi: /WAF1001.1, Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather and Forecasting 22,

Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise with emphases on Better communication More geographic specificity Reduced confusion Partnership opportunities Kevin Barjenbruch- WCM Salt Lake Melissa Tuttle Carr- The Weather Channel

Considering social impacts in forecasts Types of questions to appreciate Who will be impacted? Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married? What has happened up to this point? Have there already been fatalities? What are the TV stations saying? Have earlier storms been missed ? Craig Schmidt, Division Chief, Western Region Committed to Integrating societal Impacts into National Weather Service

Extreme speed of watershed responses Extremely short lead-time for warnings Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric Research Post- doc: Human exposure during flash flood -- New time/space analysis

New attention to weather & vulnerability Developing a cold warning system for livestock Tanja Fransen National Weather Service, Glasgow, MT

Karen Pennesi – Anthropologist - U of Western Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets & the Federal Weather Service in Brazil Predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other natural phenomena Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 88, 7,

Randy Peppler – Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma in cultural studies of weather Geography dissertation topic Native American perceptions of weather information & how their stories change with migrations to different environments Interdisciplinary doctoral committees

@ The National Weather The National Weather Center SSWIM Team University of Oklahoma Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of Oklahoma Three main goals 1. To recognize & develop the existing social science activities at the National Weather Center 2. To build a strong integrated community of practitioners, researchers, & others to coordinate new projects & proposals that weave social science into the fabric of the National Weather Center 3. To assess the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change Focus on the willing – no one being dragged into these new projects 27 Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

3 year effort - personnel Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists 2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary degrees - Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather Center 1 full time Post-doc - Poised to take leadership of integrated social science activities 28 Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

Post – doctoral scientist Heather Lazrus (moving to Norman in January) Environmental anthropologist Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries – conducting interviews in Alaska & Pacific Northwest How climate change & new policies affecting livelihoods & outlooks Dissertation research 10 months living on TUVALU - small island nation in South Pacific – how are THEY dealing with sea level rise? 29 Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

Kim Klockow Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology & Economics, Finance Masters work in Professional Meteorology at OU Interviewing farmers about how they value weather information from the Oklahoma mesonet Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings 30 Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

Gina Eosco Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at OU Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society Masters work at Cornell University Interviewing forecasters & government officials about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool 31 Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice

Workshop objectives 1. Introduce new technologies & directions to a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators. 2. Define & address the broad spectrum of end- user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public - focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry 3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies

4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms 5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals 6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation 7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS Workshop objectives

Ground rules Advanced WAS * IS is not like any other workshop NO Acronyms – except NOAA, HWT & WAS * IS! Meet & mingle to foster new collaborations & projects Best uses of our short time together Breaks & meals Keep everyone engaged – small groups Minimized glazed eyeballs Imagine yourself in other peoples shoes Everyones opinion matters

Challenges of this bold experiment We speak different languages Please remember not everyone is a meteorologist What are appropriate thresholds for risks, for geographic specificity, how to show? WAS * IS framework is not common to all of us Technically difficult Using the scenario – Trade offs of anchoring this way - Hazardous Weather Testbed & other hazards Inventing innovative ways to communicate uncertainty Even forecasters need more than l week to understand what we are going to tackle in 2.5 days

Challenges of this bold experiment By tomorrow afternoon & Wednesday morning we will be evaluating options for moving forward More workshops – with other Weather Center Laboratories, Groups? More partners Other big ideas! Sustainable brain trust?

WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS WAS physical scientist goes to WAS * IS workshop Becomes WAS social scientist! Moving from WAS to IS…is not an instant transition! WAS*ISers realize the joys of CONNECTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS

Greg Mortensons Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace... One School at a Time (Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan ) 1 st cup- stranger 2 nd cup- honored guest 3 rd cup- youre part of family… takes years With 172 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like-minded hard-workers Social science & policy are having our 2 nd cup of tea with meteorology Were not family yet – but were no longer strangers

National Weather Service Private forecasters Local Communities The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways Meteorologists, Hydrologists Universities Research Centers Urban Drainage Districts Broadcast meteorologists

What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to WAS*IS & SSWIM

WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!

WAS*ISers & SSWIMers are changing the culture to integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

WAS*IS weather & society * integrated studies CULTURE CHANGE Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, & Mike Hudson from NOAA Central Regional Team for funding this workshop

Thanks to all of you for coming & participating in this AMAZING opportunity LETS GET our Advanced WAS * IS BREWING! We have BIG work to do