Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP Edward I. Tollerud1, Brian D. Jamison2, Fernando Caracena1, Steven E. Koch1, Diana L. Bartels1,Randall S. Collander2 1NOAA Research - Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO 2Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere – Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO LIDAR DATA R. Michael Hardesty3, Brandi J. McCarty4, Christoph Kiemle5, and Gerhard Ehret5 3NOAA Research - Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, CO 4Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 5German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

FSL/FRD IHOP Science Objectives QPF Assessment Design and Compare model runs for sensitivity to input data LLJ Moisture Budget Computations with LLJ research flight data Scales of Moisture Transport by LLJ Qualitative Comparison of Data Analyses IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Flight Plans and Data Platforms IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

“Perfect storm” scenario (What we wanted…) “Perfect storm” scenario 2004 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

“Perfect storm” scenario (What we wanted…) “Perfect storm” scenario IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

“Perfect storm” scenario (What we wanted…) “Perfect storm” scenario IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

LAPS Research Analysis Isotachs (kt), 825 hpa 1300 UTC 9 June 2002 (What we got…) LAPS Research Analysis Isotachs (kt), 825 hpa 1300 UTC 9 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

(What we got…) IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Scales of Moisture Transport Radiosonde-Scale Dropsonde-Scale Lidar-Scale IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Scales of Moisture Transport Lear Drop Times and Locations, Circuits 1 and 2 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Scales of Moisture Transport June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along North Flight Leg – v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Scales of Moisture Transport June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along South Flight Leg – v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Scales of Moisture Transport Falcon drops Circuit one North Leg v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Scales of Moisture Transport Lear drops Circuit two North Leg v x q, theta IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Interplatform comparison: Co-located Falcon and Lear Profiles dt ~ 1h X X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

V x q profile comparison, circuit 1 to circuit 2 dt ~ 4h X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Meridional Moisture Flux during Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Zonal Moisture Flux during Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain Objectives Determination of significant contributing mechanisms Assessment of unresolved transports: comparison of LIDAR covariances and budget residuals Issues Stationarity Assumption Off-perimeter Budget Terms Surface Fluxes IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain At a point: q/t + vq  (q)/p  R where R=(errors, P, surface flux,etc.) Over a volume: q/t + vq  (q)/p  R Term by term:  vq =  v q +  v’q’ Budget domain is 3D box enclosed by data “curtains” beneath flight track Compute layer average horizontal flux as  vq dl Domain size and flight patterns are compromise chosen to legitimize assumption of stationarity IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Figure: v and q Lear second circuit! X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Impact of Vertical Correlations X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Impact of Within-layer Vertical Correlations X IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Temporal Change of Layer Averaged Horizontal Moisture Flux IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Vertically Integrated Moisture Fluxes on Budget Domain Boundary South North Computations from Falcon Dropsondes, Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Full 3D Domain Net Moisture Flux, First Falcon Circuit The answer is: -3.3 mm/day What was the question? IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

QPF Sensitivity to High-Density Initialization Data Objective 1: Determine impact of IHOP research data (primarily dropsondes) in initialization dataset on LLJ forecast intensity and placement Procedure: Compare two WRF forecasts (with /IHOP research data in LAPS initialization, and without) for 3 June and 9 June LLJ cases) LIDAR usage: Qualitative forecast assessment Status: Operational runs in process; re-acquisition of LAPS initialization datasets required for research runs in process (eg., revised dropsonde data) Objective 2: Assess importance of surface fluxes to LLJ development LIDAR usage: Initialization dataset Status: Questionable IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Run-total precipitation, 01:00 UTC 10 June 2002 Operational WRF Research WRF (w/dropsondes) Run-total precipitation, 01:00 UTC 10 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Research WRF (w/dropsondes) Operational WRF Research WRF (w/dropsondes) Isotachs, north leg, 1700 UTC IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Research WRF (w/dropsondes) Operational WRF Research WRF (w/dropsondes) RH, 825 hpa, 1700 UTC IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Conclusions and Future Efforts Multiscale Structure of the LLJ 1) Several Platforms provide similar picture of LLJ 2) Examine pervasiveness of laminar structures 3) Estimate effects of small (LIDAR-scale) horizontal correlations 4) More detailed determination of temporal development of LLJ IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Conclusions and Future Efforts QPF Implications 1) Influence of drops on analyses and forecasts small 2) Confirm with June 3 case 3) Compute model-predicted fluxes, compare research to baseline 4) Compute fluxes through model-domain top 5) Examine model-generated precipitation fields IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Lear, Falcon Drop Times and Locations, Circuit 1 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

4h forecast 1700 UTC 9 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Analysis 1700 UTC 9 June 2002 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 2 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 3 IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

Data and observations IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004