Results of round 1 of the Delphi survey Boniface Dongmo N. AMD Secretariat WHO Geneva

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Std Dev 0.05 0.04 1 Quartile 0.02 0.00 3 Quartile 0.10 0.09 0.08 Average - 1 STDEV 0.03 0.01 -0.01 Average + 1 STDEV 0.13 0.12 0.11

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average 5% 7% 9% 11% 12% Std Dev 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 1 Quartile 0.02 0.06 3 Quartile 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.19 Average - 1 STDEV Average + 1 STDEV 0.11 0.14 0.17

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average 0% 1% 2% 3% Std Dev 0.01 0.02 0.03 1 Quartile 0.00 3 Quartile 0.05 Average - 1 STDEV Average + 1 STDEV 0.04 0.06

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 NRTI + 1 NNRTI 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 Triple NRTI 0.00 0.01 0.02 2NRTI + 1PI 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 d4T 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.63 0.60 0.56 ZDV 0.20 0.30 0.31 0.34 0.35 0.37 TDF 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.10

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3TC 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.89 FTC 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.07

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 EFV 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.32 NVP 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.67 ABC 0.00 ddI 0.01 ATV NFV 0.03 0.02 IDV LPV/r

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sum of nucleoside estimates 1.32 1.37 1.40 1.43 Sum of PI estimate 0.94 0.95 0.97 1.00

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ddI 0.42 0.41 ABC 0.18 0.31 0.32 TDF 0.50 0.54 0.57 0.59 0.58 3TC 0.01 EFV 0.03 0.02 0.00 NVP ZDV 0.09 FTC 0.08 0.07 0.06

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 IDV/r 0.13 0.14 0.12 LPV/r 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.49 NFV 0.31 0.28 0.27 0.26 SQV/r 0.07 ATV/r 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Production capacity D4T Low 18,959 30,652 41,040 48,652 58,391 67,657 222,000 High 30,334 54,588 82,257 103,825 123,994 134,771 ZDV 56,325 124,018 173,989 231,660 292,215 376,420 410,000 90,120 220,862 348,725 494,371 620,526 749,810 TDF 5,716 11,950 24,423 44,071 64,186 82,995 9,146 21,281 48,951 94,050 136,300 165,322 3TC 98,914 165,592 225,526 279,879 341,794 425,398 512,000 158,263 294,900 452,021 597,272 725,809 847,372 FTC 1,545 2,712 6,593 11,554 18,540 23,585 2,472 4,831 13,213 24,656 39,371 46,981 EFV 45,144 81,614 127,261 175,677 228,195 293,718 168,000 72,230 145,345 255,070 374,902 484,577 585,073 NVP 98,789 159,855 215,231 270,707 332,539 410,086 475,000 158,063 284,684 431,387 577,699 706,155 816,871 ABC 2,271 8,242 14,647 23,551 32,252 42,852 46,000 3,634 14,678 29,356 50,259 68,487 85,359 ddI 3,446 7,098 12,960 20,936 29,770 40,446 70,000 5,513 12,641 25,976 44,679 63,218 80,567 SQV 2,784 6,103 10,733 16,215 21,540 28,053 19,000 4,454 10,869 21,512 34,602 45,740 55,880 NFV 42,420 65,044 88,976 133,143 180,445 233,687 210,000 67,872 115,836 178,335 284,131 383,180 465,493 IDV 5,854 11,546 22,188 32,094 41,235 52,676 99,000 9,367 20,563 44,472 68,490 87,564 104,928 RTV 1,505 4,054 7,978 12,423 19,451 27,734 25,000 2,408 7,220 15,990 26,511 41,304 55,245 LPV/r 6,019 16,189 31,814 49,502 77,491 110,525 9,630 28,831 63,765 105,638 164,555 220,160