Water Resources Chapter Overview

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Presentation transcript:

Water Resources Chapter Overview Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at SAP 4.3 Stakeholder Workshop Baltimore February 16, 2007

Runoff Mean annual runoff, runoff ratio, and fraction of runoff originating as snow across the continental U.S. and Alaska Runoff ratio Fraction from snow

Number of trends Observed streamflow trends, 1944-93 (from Lins and Slack, GRL, 1999) Location of trends

Changes in spring snowmelt runoff timing, western U.S., 1948-2000 Source: Stewart et al, J Clim, 2005

Projected changes in annual runoff, 2041-2060 relative to 1900-1970, from 24 GCMs run for IPCC 2006 Source: Milly et al, Nature 2005

Median runoff changes, 2041-2060 relative to 1900-1970, from 12 GCMs archived for IPCC 2006 Median changes by USGS water resources region Number of model pairs (of 24) with increases minus decreases Source: replotted from Milly et al, Nature, 2005. Visual courtesy Chris Milly, USGS

Chapter outline Background – importance of water, current status of U.S. water resources Observed changes in U.S. water resources, 20th Century. Attribution of changes to a) climate change, b) land use/land cover, and c) other change agents Future changes and impacts, based on refereed literature using GCM model runs archived for IPCC AR4 Implications for landscape – hydrology interactions – drought, fire, hydrology-vegetation feedbacks Observing system – what do we have now, is it doing the job, how could it be improved? Findings and conclusions