Hypothesis Testing on Vacation

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Presentation transcript:

Hypothesis Testing on Vacation Time: Aug, 1990 Place: Campground “Can we buy an RV?” “Why?” “Everyone else does!” “Really!?”

Let us collect some data! My Favorite Recipe : Question Data Analysis Conclusion

Decision Through Data! Question: “Does everyone else have RV’s?” If p>0.5, we will buy an RV! Data: To and from Yellowstone, tallied all vehicles in the opposite direction.

Hypothesis Testing on Vacation Original Data Collection Sheets

Hypothesis Testing on Vacation HO: p = 0.5 HA: p < 0.5 Analysis: x = 67 RV’s n = 857 vehicles z = -24.7 P-value = 0 Conclusion: There is strong evidence for p<0.5. Less than 50% people have RV’s! $ saved!

Follow Up Confidence Interval to find the true proportion of RV’s: p = ? Analysis: x = 67 RV’s n = 857 vehicles We want 95% confidence. Conclusion: We are 95% Confident that the true p = (0.078±0.018)! Only 6% to 9.6% people have RV’s! $ saved!