Forecasting Siam Reap.

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting Siam Reap

Baseline Prediction How will baseline conditions change in the future (absent climate change) Technology change Output prices change Input prices change Labor Land Water Fertilizer

How will future climate change? What will be future emissions? What will be climate effect? How does that vary across country?

IPCC Emissions Scenarios This study

Projected Warming: This study

Predict Impact Estimate Ricardian regression NR=a+b*Temp+c*Precip Predict value at current climate (0) NR(0)=a+bTemp(0)+cPrecip(0) Predict value at future climate (1) NR(1)=a+bTemp(1)+cPrecip(1) Impact per hectare is NR(1)-NR(0) Total impact is L*(NR(1)-NR(0))