Polarization Time 1 33 Liberals 34 Moderates 33 Conservatives Time 2 50 Liberals 0 Moderates 50 Conservatives Time 1 33 Democrats 34 Independents 33 Republicans Time 2 50 Democrats 0 Independents 50 Republicans

Party Sorting  Party Polarization Time 1 Democrats Independents Republicans 50 liberals 25 liberals 25 moderates 50 moderates 25 moderates 25 conservatives 50 conservatives Time 2 Democrats Independents Republicans 75 liberals 75 conservatives 25 moderates 50 moderates 25 moderates

Change in ID by Region from 1980 to 1990 Democratic Republican South -16.1 [-12.1, -20.1] +14.5 [9.5, 19.5] New England -12.1 [-3.8, -20.4] +7.5 [-3.2, 18.2] Border (KY, MD, MO, WV) -8.5 [-1.8, 15.2] +5.1 [-3.5, 13.7] Mid-Atlantic (NY, NJ, PA, DE) -11.2 [-7.2, -15.2] +9.4 [3.7, 15.1] Midwest (OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN) -8.8 [-5, -12.6] +9.2 [3.8, 14.6] Plains (IA, ND, SD, NE, KS) -3.5 [-11.9, 4.9] +6.5 [-4.5, 17.5] Rocky (MT, CO, ID, WY, UT, NV) -0.6 [-12.6, 11.2] +5.9 [-5.2, 17] Pacific (CA, OR, WA) -11.8 [-7, -16.6] +7.9 [1.6, 14.2] Southwest (TX, AZ, NM, OK) -14.4 [-7.5, -21.3] +13.6 [6.7, 20.5] 95% CI in brackets

Party Identification for Liberals

Party Identification for Conservatives

Sorting by Ideology into Parties: 1980 -2018 Blue =Dem Red =Rep Grey =Indp 41% moderate 40% 34% conservative 32% 25% liberal 28%

Party and Ideology in 2018

No Decline in Moderates Source: GSS

Issue Centrists Still Dominate Source: 2016 ANES

Figure 4: Abortion Should be Legal--Sometimes Source: The Gallup Organization

For any candidate Source: ANES

Gave Money to a Campaign ANY campaign Source: ANES

The Current Party Parity System has had several consequences related to U.S. Politics 1.Partisan voting in Congress 2. elections are more competitive 3. presidents who are dividers, not unifiers 4. partisans of both parties misperceiving the other 5. era of unstable majorities

Determining Partisan Overlap in Congress Democrat

Partisan Convergence in the House, DW-Nominate Scores, 1867-1999

Partisan Convergence in the Senate, DW-Nominate Scores, 1867-1999

Elections 1950-1992 Post 1992 President Congress President Congress Won by. 10+ points H- 85 + seats ave. w/out 64 ,72 8+ points 20 of 21 Dem. 5 of 11 55% + 5 had 100 + Dem 8 of 11. 50% or more S- 57 to 43 margin Dems 34 of 42 yrs. Less than 3 percent. H- 35 seat margin In two popular vote 10 of 12 Rep.* winner lost 0 won with 55% S-53 to 47 margin Reps 16 0f 24 yrs.* * Partially result of rural states plus majority- minority districts

Trump 1 86 9 77 2 88 8 80

2014 2012 2016 President House House Senate Senate House Senate

Will 2018 be a Wave Election ?

Only three things matter in Predicting Off Year Congressional Elections 1.Margin of the vote– How many Republicans will vote Republican, How many Democrats voting Democrat and how will Independents vote ? 2. Exactly How many Democrats, Republicans and Independents are there ? 3.Who will turn out to vote in the mid-term Margin is easier now because much less split ticket voting Estimating the number of Democrats, Republicans and Independents Is reasonably straight forward The single most difficult thing to do is to determine who will vote

Off Year Voter Turnout by 7 Point Party Identification: 1958-2014

Voter Turnout by Partisan Strength:1982-2014

1982 86 90 94 98 2002 06 10 14

Democratic advantage in identification is partially offset by stronger Republican turnout

1982 86 90 94 98 2002 06 10 14

1982 86 90 94 98 2002 06 10 14 Democratic advantage in identification is again partially offset by stronger Republican turnout

Dem Vote Prediction = 52.9% of two-party vote Rep Vote Prediction = 47.1% of two-party vote Democratic win by 4.8% That translates into a 225-30 seat Democratic margin Minus the Republican bonus(efficient voting) its close.

2016

Trump Job Approval by Strength Want Trump to Run in 2020 of Party Identification Approve Disapprove Don’t know

New Jersey will be in play by November with Hugin having a chance

Whatever happens in 2018 the parties will be changing: If Republicans hold House and Senate then Trump is the new Republican party If they lose the House and/or Senate then the establishment party will rise to oppose Because there will be no policy gains Democrats are already in battle over the direction of the party Ocasio-Cortez. Sanders Warren Vs. Biden Clinton Connor Lamb

However, to quote a famous politician:

The End