High resolution NWP in Australia www.cawcr.gov.au Peter Steinle & Earth System Modelling + others Data Assimilation Team Leader 14th Sept 2011

NWP systems Met Office Unified Model (UM7.5,L70) 4km City Systems 6 hourly 4dVAR : Global, Region & TC 4km City Systems No Assimilation (3dVAR expt.) 1.5km UM7.6/L70 (Experimental) 3dVAR + radar winds & precip(LHN) Relocatable Ensembles Need Global & Regional EPS Need deterministic high res. Bushfires Under development Topography & land surface v. important G: N320 (~40km) + 4dVAR R: 0.11o +4dVAR C: 4km ; no DA The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Radar coverage Rainfall coverage only ~100km Rainfall calibration limited Doppler winds: limited ....... Focus on 3 major population centres Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane Also main topogrpahy The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Focus on high resolution High resolution verification data? – Rainfall Forecast skill at 6 hours Neutral at 3 hours Focus on hourly precipitation High impact weather Clearer depiction of model performance Major limiting factor?: cloud & precipitation scheme Overdoes strong tropical convection – model calibration 3dVAR small impact Latent Heat Nudging has a number of issues Scientific Aim (hope?): Operational 1.5km NWP for tropical convection in 3 years The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Thank you Presenter’s name Presenter’s title Phone: XX XXXX XXXX The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Presenter’s name Presenter’s title Phone: XX XXXX XXXX Email: name.name@csiro.au Web: www.cawcr.gov.au Thank you www.cawcr.gov.au