Jacques Delsalle Clean Air and Transport Unit DG ENV NEC Review Transport Measures in NEC policy runs Jacques Delsalle Clean Air and Transport Unit DG ENV

Preliminary list of measures to be analysed Road transport: to be assessed by TREMOVE before GAINS modelling Euro 5 for cars and vans, further standard Euro 6 for Heavy Duty Engines Measures on existing road vehicles (retrofit, scrapping) Non-technical measures (Infrastructure charging, LEZ, taxation) Ships: direct input to GAINS

What do we need? Information on costs and effectiveness Existing and transparent sources. How to deal with political decision process (e.g. emission standards) Interaction between TREMOVE and GAINS Use of TREMOVE: Allows taking into account impact on transport demand, changes in vehicle stock and economic instruments Need for consistent baselines and equivalent cost concept

Organisation TMLeuven working on TREMOVE baseline for NEC Deadline May 2006 Baseyear consistent with 2000 statistics (transport demand, vehicle stock, fuel consumption) Work on consistency transport baseline 2020 (PRIMES vs National forecasts vs SCENES/ASSESS in draft TREMOVE baseline) Detailed information received from 10 countries. Presentation & discussion draft 2.42 TREMOVE baseline at TREMOVE Contact group (30/3, Brussels) LAT/AUTh working on policy scenarios with TREMOVE Until May 2006: preparation use TREMOVE, definition scenarios May-November 2006: TREMOVE runs for NEC Other contracts for providing data on costs and effectiveness of technical measures

Building a consistent baseline Example: forecasts for fuel consumption road transport up to 2020. Need for consistency check on basic assumptions (GDP, prices, implementation technologies)

Emission Standards Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles Commission Proposal for Euro 5 Include a possible further stage of reductions (Euro 6), in particular for NOx from diesel vehicles TREMOVE runs : June-July NB: new baseline may change somewhat the cost and effectiveness of the proposal compared with Impact Assessment Heavy Duty Vehicles Panel Report Decision on scenarios to model with TREMOVE TREMOVE Runs

Technical measures on existing vehicles Retrofit HDV Questionnaire sent on 7/3. Deadline for replies 17/4 Contract to be launched mid-april for evaluation policy options Workshop mid june Draft final report August TREMOVE runs Sept-October

Non-technical measures Scrapping / Bans Internal scenario development (e.g. link with LEZ) TREMOVE runs Sept-October Infrastructure charging Preliminary scenarios on Road HGV charging to be run in June-July: Voluntary approach in the framework of the revised Eurovignette directive DG TREN will launch a 1-year study in Sept 2006: review of external costs, impact assessment of policy options. Other E.g. speed limits Fuel taxes Impact CO2+Cars strategy on pollutant emissions