Forecasting – HIV/AIDS commodities Key challenges and lessons learned Moscow, March 12-16, 2006 Dr. Dragana Veskov HIV/AIDS Logistics Advisor

HIV/AIDS commodities forecasting/quantification issues

Forecasting challenges: Policy issues Multiple sources of funding, procurement mechanisms and distribution channels are used for ARV drugs and HIV/AIDS commodities Standard treatment guidelines are inconsistent, in need of revision or have not been widely disseminated to providers

Forecasting challenges: Policy issues Communication Coordination

Forecasting challenges: capacity issues Program targets do not take into account service delivery and supply chain capacity Forecasting and quantification capacity is limited at country and program levels

Forecasting challenges: operational issues Data on ART services and HIV/AIDS commodities is scarce and when available is often of insufficient quantity and quality to be used for forecasting and quantification Program expansion does not occur as rapidly as expected

Forecasting challenges: operational issues Quantification and procurement occur when funding becomes available rather then as a program planning activity that identifies commodity needs and mobilizes resources for procurement

Lessons learned Quantification exercise is time and resource intensive Quantifications are heavily assumption based but will become more evidence based over time Quantification should be based on realistic program plans and available financing

Lessons learned Quantification results can be used to determine quantities to order and shipment schedules for short-term procurement planning with available funding F&Q should be reviewed and updated at least every six months and procurement plans should be adjusted accordingly

Lessons learned F&Q requires a consultative process with multiple stakeholders The results from F&Q should be used for medium and long-term program planning and resource mobilization for ART

No Product, No Program!