Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter.

Advertisements

Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest.

California and Nevada Drought is extreme to exceptional.

Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast. Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at.

Validation Plot for the ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast. Validation Plot for 2008 Forecast (All Cool ENSO composite) Modified Flow (cfs)

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Recap of WY ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Nate Mantua Todd Mitchell JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington ENSO Transition.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington March, 2001 CIG Water Resources.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin Andy Wood Matt Wiley Bart Nijssen Climate and Water Resource Forecasts.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Long Term Streamflow Forecast Validation Western Washington Watersheds Water Year 2004 If only we’d seen this one coming... Pascal Storck 3TIER Environmental.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2009 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2009 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Seethu Babu Marketa McGuire Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Hydrologic outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

CBRFC April 2014 Water Supply Webinar April 7, 2014 Greg Smith These slides:

CRFS Technical Committee Fall Meeting LC Operations Update November 20, 2014.

CRFS November 20, JUL-SEP PRECIPITATION Good monsoon - except San Juan… September 2014 not quite as wet as 2013, but close! Precipitation above.

CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting 1:30pm April 8, 2014 Ashley Nielson.

El Niño outlook Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Drought in California How Did We Get Here and What Can We Expect This Year? November 7th 2014 APWA Sacramento Chapter Meeting Alan Haynes Service Coordination.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 19 May 2015.

Improving seasonal range hydro-meteorological predictions -- Hydrologic perspective Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

USBR Updates: Green River CRFS Meeting March 27, 2014.

By Matt Masek March 22, Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three.

Retrospective Evaluation of the Performance of Experimental Long-Lead Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts Climate Forecast and Estimated Initial Soil Moisture.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 13 January 2015.

Sources of Skill and Error in Long Range Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts: A Comparison of the Role of Hydrologic State Variables and Winter Climate.

The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: November 17, 2015 Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources.

Use of Climate Forecasts in Hydrologic Prediction Applications Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and.

CRFS Technical Committee Spring Meeting LC Operations Update March 15, 2016.

Evaluation of Skill and Error Characteristics of Alternative Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Methods Climate Forecast and Estimated Initial Soil Moisture.

Long-Range Streamflow Forecasting Products and Water Resources Management Applications in the Columbia River Basin Alan F. Hamlet, Andy Wood, Dennis P.

Estimating Changes in Flood Risk due to 20th Century Warming and Climate Variability in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

WeatherDiscussion0512.

Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier

2005 Water Resources Outlook for Idaho and the Western U.S.

(April, 2001-September, 2002) JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the

Challenges in western water management: What can science offer?

Kevin Berghoff, Senior Hydrologist

Upper Snake Reservoir Operations October 13, 2015

High resolution climate simulations and future change over Vietnam

With special thanks to Prof. V. Moron (U

2006 Water Resources Outlook for Idaho and the Western U.S.

Hydrologic Forecasting

Long-Lead Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River Basin for

Validation Plot for the ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Kootenai Basin Spring/SummerOperations for 2016

2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin

Alan F. Hamlet, Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier,

Presentation transcript:

Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast

Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at Milner in 2007 were strongly below average (~55% of normal for April-Sept) and were towards the bottom of the ensemble. A moderate to strong cool ENSO event is expected for the winter of 2007-2008, which historically is associated with increased likelihood of above average Apr-Sep flow at Milner. Dry initial soil conditions in the basin are projected to systematically reduce natural flows at Milner from April-Sept for water year 2008. However even with dry soils, the forecast at Milner shows increased chance of high flows. Snakesim model simulations suggest increases in carry over storage in the upper Snake in Sept 2008 above about 1.0 MAF.

Validation Plot for the ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast

Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

Milner Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP all years) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Natural Flow (KAF) Milner

Milner Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP cool ENSO) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Natural Flow (KAF) Milner

SnakeSim Storage Forecast (cool ENSO composite) Full Obs. Oct 10, 2008 Upper Snake Storage (KAF)

Historic Milner Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO WY Std Ann. 1932 -0.235 1943 1.137 1965 1.238 1971 2.170 1974 1.686 1984 1.883 1989 -0.080 Stats: 5 of 7 above 1.1 3 of 7 above 1.7

Based on Milner ESP 1961-2000 Natural Flow (KAF) Natural Flow (KAF) enso_2008 enso_trans_2008 Natural Flow (KAF) Natural Flow (KAF)