Forecast parameters, Tornadogensis, maintenance and decay

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Presentation transcript:

Forecast parameters, Tornadogensis, maintenance and decay Terrance Seddon 11/27/07

Over view Forecast Parameters Tornadogenesis, Maintenance and decay Bulk Richardson Number Mean Shear Storm Relative Helicity Tornadogenesis, Maintenance and decay Type I Type II

Forecast Parameter

Bulk Richardson Number BRN was found to be successful in predicting conditions where storm splitting and super cell formation is likely This is most likely due to the sensitivity to surface-inflow winds and including the 0-6km winds V = density weighted mean winds for 0-6km and 0-.5 km

Mean Shear This parameter helps predict storm type. Storms are predicted to be tornadic if CAPE and mean shear are large However mean shear fails in practice because it is ill defined for fractal hodographs.

Storm Relative Helicity Useful for predicting if the updraft will rotate cyclonically or ant cyclonically as a whole

Other parameters A number very similar to BRN can be obtained by CAPE/SRH, however this number is not that useful. More useful is CAPE X SRH, which is proportional to the energy-helicity index.

The Next Step So far the parameters we have discuss will only predict the formation of supercells and mesocyclones aloft The next step is predicting a persistent low-level mesocyclone, which is much more difficult. The factors that have to be considered: Precipitation distribution Balance between SRH and low level mixing ratio DCAPE

Tornadogenesis, maintenance and decay Mesocyclonic or type I tornadoes Nonmesocyclonic or type II tornadoes

Type I Tornadoes Persistent low level convergence (10-15 min) Convergence in the boundary layer of the mesocyclone “Seed” vertical vorticity already present near the ground.