3.6 Regional dimension of the poverty and exclusion indicators Luxembourg 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics EXPECTED OUTCOME Take note of current situation Comment alternatives for improvement Define a common solution Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics Problem statement (1) Policy context: Europe 2020 strategy, GDP and Beyond Communication In this context, growing user demands for regional poverty data DG Regio wants to use social headline indicators to complement GDP (benchmarking and convergence criteria) From 2018, use of indicators "beyond GDP" for funding purposes Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics Problem statement (2) 3 social headline indicators (employment rates, percentage of early school leavers and tertiary education attainment) are measured through LFS, 1 (at risk of poverty or social exclusion) through SILC LFS is regulated to be representative at regional level (NUTS 2), while SILC is not However, most MS publish regional SILC data (but quality issues exist) Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics Alternatives 3.1 Increasing sample size and/ or using better stratification 3.2 Aggregation of small NUTS 2 regions: "NUTS 1.5" 3.3 3 years average 3.4 Modelling/estimates done by NSI's 3.5 Modelling/estimates done by Eurostat 3.6 Open solution Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

3.1 Increasing sample size and/ or using better stratification + more reliable data - costly - national data source given priority Stratification: + less costly - needs time/HR investment - conflicting objectives (with national sample) (DK) (if funding provided), EL(if funding provided), ES, HU, PL (only by means of EU funding), PT (with reserves) (SI) are in favour BE, DE state efforts should be made in this direction in the future Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

3.2 Aggregation of small NUTS 2 regions: “NUTS 1.5” Aggregate data for few NUTS 2 regions with small sample / population sizes Only for a limited number of cases Only if important characteristics match + less costly - needs time/HR investment - political acceptability? (CZ), (DK), FR, HU, RO, FI, (SE) are in favour ES questions the political acceptability of this solution, while FI recommends it for one particular small region Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics 3.3 Three years average Pooling 3 survey years, to increase sample size + not costly + more reliable and robust direct estimates and reduced confidence intervals - smaller gains in precision with SILC design - limits time series BE, (CZ), EL, ES, FR, IT, NL, AT, PT, (SK), UK are in favour FR thinks this could be done in combination with modelling at national level IT states the need to test the increase in precision based on it Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics 3.4 Modelling by NSI's Based on administrative data or national surveys with a larger sample Post calibration is one option in use + more information available than at EU level - HR resources needed - easier to estimate AROP than other indicators - time series if based on other surveys BE, (CZ), FR, IT, PL, (SK), FI are in favour ES worries about political acceptability of estimates, HU and RO don't have the available resources BE, IT, FR, NL find it promising, especially through the use of admin data Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics 3.5 Modelling by Eurostat Based on data sources available at European level + no costs for the NSI's - less information available than at national level - political acceptability? BG, DE, EL, IT, HU, NL, PT, RO, (SE), (SK) are in favour NL and IT state this solution should be investigated, ES and PL express concerns PT raises the question of which poverty threshold should be considered (European, national, regional) Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics 3.6 Open solution DE proposes to establish a Task Force under the supervision of Eurostat to develop suitable methods in the field of Small Area Estimation. Please let us know any other alternative you would find suitable Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics Proposals For 2018 (delivery year) this data will be needed for funding allocation. Better quality indicators are expected to be available regularly through SILC for all countries, due to revision of the legal basis and modernization processes Funding from DG Regio is available for increasing sample size in a transitional phase For 2014 and onwards (reference year), regional values (NUTS 2 or 1.5) of AROPE will be needed for benchmarking. Our proposal is to move gradually to the 2018 target, with a strategy adapted to each MS peculiarities: Increased sample size, adequate stratification, aggregate small regions, 3 years average, As a temporary solution: modelling Funding from DG Regio is available also for sharing expertise (e.g. : organising a workshop on sampling design, small area estimation methods, and/or 3 year averages of SILC indicators) Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics

Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics Contact Georgiana Aurelia Ivan European Commission - DG ESTAT Unit F1 "Social statistics – modernisation and coordination" tel. (+352) 4301 36924 Aurelia-Georgiana.IVAN@ec.europa.eu Thank you ! Luxembourg, 4-5 March 2013 Meeting of the European Directors of Social Statistics