FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS IN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY: Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS IN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY: IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS ON DECISION-MAKING Könnölä, T.1, Scapolo, F.2, Mu, R.3, Desruelle, P.1 1European Commission JRC-IPTS 2European Commission JRC, 3Chinese Academy of Sciences

Content Introduction Conceptual Framework Empirical Analysis Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability Content Introduction Conceptual Framework Empirical Analysis Discussion

Impacts of FTA in security and sustainability? Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 1. Introduction Impacts of FTA in security and sustainability? Sustainability Future needs of society (Brundtland,1987) Triple bottom line (ecological, social and economic development) Challenges, e.g. climate change, global equity, competitiveness Security The condition of being protected against danger or loss that originate from outside such as war, disaster, civil unrest, terrorism or sabotage. Related to critical infrastructures Common nominators -complexity, uncertainty, irreversibility

What kinds of FTA projects in security and sustainability? Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 2. Conceptual Framework What kinds of impacts of FTA? What kinds of FTA projects in security and sustainability? A framework* for characterising different types of FTA projects Outcomes Informative vs. Instrumental & Informative Outcomes Consensual vs. Diverse Future Perspectives Process Extensive vs. Exclusive Stakeholder Engagement Fixed vs. Autonomous Design and Management * Framework builds on Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A. Kivisaari, S. & Koivisto, R. (forthcoming). On Classifying Foresight Projects: Reflections from the Management of a Foresight Portfolio at a Contract Research Organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic Management.

2.1 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Outcomes Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 2.1 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Outcomes Consensual Informative Instrumental & informative Diverse

2.2 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Process Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 2.2 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Process Exclusive Fixed Autonomous Extensive

2.3 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Framework Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 2.3 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Framework Consensual Informative Extensive Exclusive Fixed Autonomous Instrumental & informative Diverse

Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 3.1 Empirical Analysis How different types of FTAs have had impacts on security and sustainability? FTA shifted from S&T to different policy fields, inclusion of societal dimensions Sustainability has been widely addressed in FTA projects Security addressed but maybe not as widely Key phases in the empirical analysis 1. Selection of projects Personal experience or contact Resulted in a set of mostly policy-oriented foresights 2. Description of each project 3. Positioning of the projects in the framework 4. Analysis of the impacts of different types of FTA projects

European wide China Japan Nordic countries Korea UK Canada Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 3.2 Empirical Analysis: Selected Foresight Projects European wide IRRIIS Scenario FISTERA Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability Nordic countries Nordic ICT Foresight Nordic H2 Energy Foresight VTT Water Research Roadmap UK UK DCDC Global Canada Foresight Canada China National Technology Foresight in China Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Japan Innovation 25 in Japan 8th Japanese Foresight Program Korea National Technology Roadmap in Korea The Revision 3rd Korean tech. foresight

3.3 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Outcomes Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 3.3 Empirical Analysis: Foresight Outcomes Consensual Informative Instrumental & informative Diverse Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability Nordic ICT Foresight IRRIIS Scenario National Technology Foresight in China Nordic H2 Energy Foresight Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China National Technology Roadmap in Korea VTT Water Research Roadmap 8th Japanese Foresight Program FISTERA Foresight Canada Innovation 25 in Japan The 8th Japanese foresight program The Revision 3rd Korean technology foresight UK DCDC Global

3.4 Empirical analysis: Foresight Framework Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 3.4 Empirical analysis: Foresight Framework Consensual Informative Extensive Exclusive Fixed Autonomous Instrumental & informative Diverse National Technology Roadmap in Korea IRRIIS Scenario UK DCDC Global Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability Nordic ICT Foresight VTT Water Research Roadmap Japanese foresight program Innovation 25 in Japan Foresight Canada Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China National Technology foresgiht in China Nordic H2 Energy Foresight Revisión of 3rd TF in Korea FISTERA

4.1 Discussion: Security and Sustainability Foresight Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 4.1 Discussion: Security and Sustainability Foresight Consensual Informative Instrumental & informative Diverse Missed opportunities? Reduced policy interest Unexpected indirect impacts may lead to instrumental use Risks of lock-in? Important impacts BUT tracing difficult

4.2 Discussion: FTA and Security and Sustainability Future-oriented technology analysis in security and sustainability 4.2 Discussion: FTA and Security and Sustainability Consensual Informative Instrumental & informative Diverse Exploration and creative generation of new ideas/solutions Awareness Vision-building Common networks Weak signals, trend breaks New value networks Participatory democracy Science for policy

FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS IN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY: Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS IN SECURITY AND SUSTAINABILITY: IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS ON DECISION-MAKING Könnölä, T.1, Scapolo, F.2, Mu, R.3, Desruelle, P.1 1European Commission JRC-IPTS 2European Commission JRC, 3Chinese Academy of Sciences