SETI: 50 Years and Counting The Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence and a possible answer to the questions: “Is there intelligent life out there?” & “Where Are They?” by Robert E. Strong <robert@smartcenter.org> Libby Strong <libby@smartcenter.org> Richard Pollack <energy@smartcenter.org> SMART-Center & SMART Centre Market / Sir. Arthur C. Clarke NEO Observatory / Near Earth Object Foundation January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 Fermi Paradox1 During an informal discussion of distinguished scientists in 1950, esteemed physicist Enrico Fermi questioned the common belief that the Milky Way Galaxy is teaming with life and advanced civilizations. Evidence for these advanced extraterrestrial civilizations, spacecraft, probes, artifacts and other evidence was lacking. In a typical manner for Fermi - he synthesized the debate in a single short statement: “Where Are They?” January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 Fermi Paradox2 A “Paradox” is a statement that is true or assumed to be true or a group of statements that is true or assumed to be true that leads to a contradiction from observation or logic or leads to a situation which defies intuition. Typically the general solution to any “Paradox” is to call into question the truthfulness of fundamental premises that are assumed to be true and or the logic used to reach a conclusion: “Where Are They?” January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 Fermi Paradox3 Activity: “Where Are They?” The underlying reason that Fermi asked “Where Are They?” If : A - the Milky Way Galaxy is 100,000 light years in diameter B - a space faring species can travel through space > 0.001 “c” Then : A space faring species could travel across, explore, and colonize the entire Milky Way Galaxy in under 100 million years!! So … “Where are they?” or their artifacts? January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 Fermi Paradox4 Activity: “Where Are They?” How Big/How Far? Using the scale 10-15 or “femto” or “micro-nano” scale: The size of the diameter of the orbit of Neptune is 9.0 billion km or 9.0 mm at the femto scale The size of the diameter of the Kuiper Belt is 9.0 to 16.5 billion km or at the femto scale 9.0 to 16.5 mm At the femto scale a light year is 9.461 m The closest Stars Proxima Centauri and Alpha Centauri A & B are 40.143 m and 41.297 m respectively January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 Fermi Paradox5 Activity: Penny for your thoughts Using the scale 10-15 or “femto” or “micro-nano” scale: Penny diameter 19 mm The size of the diameter of the orbit of Neptune is 9.0 billion km or 9.0 mm at the femto scale (Lincoln’s beard to back of head) The size of the diameter of the Kuiper Belt is 9.0 to 16.5 billion km or at the “femto” scale = 9.0 to 16.5 mm (just smaller than penny) January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L In September 1960, Frank Drake, an intrepid young graduate student in astrophysics working at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia, set out to answer one of the grandest questions humans have ever asked during his Project Ozma experiment: Are we alone in the Cosmos? January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L In 1961, Frank Drake tried to bring order to the chaos by creating a quantified equation for determining the likelihood and N number of sentient and communicative species in the MWG. Drake presented this equation at a meeting at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L “One of the greatest virtues of this equation, … , is that it involves subjects ranging from stellar and planetary astronomy to organic chemistry, evolutionary biology, history, politics and abnormal Psychology. Much of the Cosmos is in the span of the Drake Equation” Carl Sagan, Cosmos January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L N* = the Milky Way Galaxy contains some 400 billion or (400,000,000,000) 4x1011 stars January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L R* = rate of star formation in the Milky Way Galaxy (thought to be 1.0 / year) January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L fp = the fraction of stars with planets January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L ne = the number of planets (or moons of planets) per star system on/in which life could arise January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L fl = the fraction of planets (or moons of planets) on/in which life does arise January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L fi = the fraction of planets (or moons of planets) on/in which life does arise that develop what we consider intelligence January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L fc = of planets (or moons of planets) on/in which intelligent life does arise that contain a technologically advanced civilization capable and desiring to send messages that we can understand into space January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

Boom goes London, Boom Paris, more room for you and more room for me N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L  L = the average lifetime of a technologically advanced civilization capable and desiring to send messages that we can understand into space as a ratio of the lifetime of the parent star (assume as 10 billion (10,000,000,000) years for a Sun like star) Boom goes London, Boom Paris, more room for you and more room for me January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L N = N* (for MWG = 4x1011) x R* (use rate = 1.0 star / y) x fp (between 0.0 and 1.0) ______ x ne (between 0.0 and 10) ______x fl (between 0.0 and 1.0) ______ x fi (between 0.0 and 1.0) ______ x fc (between 0.0 and 1.0) ______ x L (lifetime _________ y / 1010 y) N = ______Your guess of the number of extant, sentient, advanced civilizations in the MWG right now  January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L N = Optimistic numbers N* (for MWG = 4x1011) x R* (use rate = 1.0 star / y) x fp (between 0.0 and 1.0) 0.7 x ne (between 0.0 and 10) 2.0 x fl (between 0.0 and 1.0) 0.5 x fi (between 0.0 and 1.0) 0.1 x fc (between 0.0 and 1.0) 0.1 x L (lifetime 107 y / 1010 y) N = 5.6 x 107 Your guess of the number of extant, sentient, advanced civilizations in the MWG right now  January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L N = Pessimistic numbers N* (for MWG = 4x1011) x R* (use rate = 1.0 star / y) x fp (between 0.0 and 1.0) 0.3 x ne (between 0.0 and 10) 10-3 x fl (between 0.0 and 1.0) 10-4 x fi (between 0.0 and 1.0) 10-5 x fc (between 0.0 and 1.0) 10-4 x L (lifetime 102 y / 1010 y) N = 1.2 x 10-13 Your guess of the number of extant, sentient, advanced civilizations in the MWG right now  January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 N = N* R* fp ne fl fi fc L Drake Equation Uses: Class Discussion - engages students in high interest topic Student Interaction - creates an atmosphere of interaction Estimation – calculated guesses / knowledge from science classes Extrapolation - using prior knowledge from science classes Judgment – students make choices based on prior and discussion data Minimum (Range) Values – students make minimal assumptions Maximum (Range) Values – students make maximal assumptions Mean and Mode determination – class decisions based on all students Averages – students determine individual and class averages Multiplying Fractions and Decimals – practice using interesting data Scientific Notation – “real world” use for scientific notation January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010

WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010 Discussion Topics Recent discovery of Exoplanets As of October 22, 2010 there are 494 Exoplanets discovered http://exoplanet.eu/catalog.php (The Extrasolar Planets Encyclopaedia) Goldilocks zones and ice moons as places with liquid water Stephen Hawkins’ ideas of malevolent Aliens “avoid contact with alien life forms” Universe filled with intelligent aliens, i.e., as Star Trek Implications of this… We (humanity) are the only intelligent species in the MW Galaxy All the SETI searches to date: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SETI Note: to date SETI results have been: ZERO January 18, 2019 WVSTA Wheeling, West Virginia Copyright: Robert E. Strong 2010