History: how we got where we are Comparisons with Estonia and China

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Presentation transcript:

History: how we got where we are Comparisons with Estonia and China The Russian economy History: how we got where we are Comparisons with Estonia and China Thorvaldur Gylfason

Population 1960-2005 (millions)

Gross domestic product per capita (ppp, constant 2000 Usd)

Gdp per capita 1975-2000 (ppp, constant 2000 Usd)

Begin with Three basic determinants of growth Growth depends on buildup of physical, human,foreign, and financial capital Investment Education Trade and foreign investment Finance Growth Investment Education Trade Finance

Investment 1960-2005 (% of gdp)

Fdi 1979-2005 (inward flows, % of gdp)

Secondary-school enrollment 1991-2004 (% of cohort)

Expenditure on education 1991-2003 (% of gdp)

Life expectancy 1960-2005 (years)

Fertility 1960-2005 (births per woman)

Exports 1960-2005 (% of gdp)

Customs duties 1990-2004 (% of imports)

Inflation 1961-2005 (% per year)

Inflation 1995-2005 (% per year)

Add four potentially important determinants of growth Growth depends on social capital … Equality Honesty Democracy … and natural capital Oil, minerals Growth Equality Honesty Democracy Oil

Manufacturing 1984-2005 (% of exports)

Income distribution 1998-2004 (gini index of inequality)

Corruption (from 1 to 10) (from transparency international, 10 means clean)

Corruption (% of managers surveyed ranking this as a major business constraint)

Democracy (from -10 to 10)