Katarina Stančić Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia The role of leading indicators in the evidence-based decision-making system Katarina Stančić Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Oxford Dictionary - The Word of the Year (2016): Post truth an adjective that indicates the circumstances in which it is forming a public opinion to a maximum extent under the influence of feelings and personal convictions, and not under the influence of objective facts and evidence Causes: the widely-present Libellan socio-paradigm, political rhetoric, replacing traditional right-hand values for liberal-left, etc.

„decides heart, not head“ Facts - less priority in relation to the emotional set and emotional and personal values: political, social confusion and permanent distrust in social institutions

Do we need more than ever science in a post-war society? evidence-based decision making making decisions based on evidence and evidence the reaction is on the need for a critical evaluation of information A scientific approach is based on the facts that can be proven in the professional public is increasingly insisting on evidence-based decision-making, as the only functional and responsible response to the challenges that a modern, post-industrial society faces.

System of leading indicators in RZS Analytical means in predicting cyclical trends in economic activity It involves the detection of circular cyclic points, minimum and maximum, in order to result in anticipation of the stage of the economic cycle of the domestic economy in the future period In the detection of the variables that entered the presented composite indicators, all macroeconomic areas and surveys on the expectations of economic entities in the Serbian economy were analyzed The developed system of composite leading indicators of the RZS predominates on the cycles of economic activity, on average, for about six months and, combined with econometric models, enables a quantitative evaluation of the dynamics of the annual growth rate of economic activity in the short term, at the quarterly and annual level

A family of leading indicators, by sectors

GRIPAS - the leading indicator of construction Manufacture of electrical equipment, physical volume Export of goods and services in Germany Export of goods and services to Slovenia Import of cellulose and recycled paper NBS Securities Number of arrivals of domestic and foreign tourists variables with the best performance of the leading indicators that entered the final composition of the composite industrial indicator of economic activity of Serbia (GRIPAS)

INDIPAS - leading indicator of industrial production physical volume of the beverage production sector import of agriculture, forestry and fisheries import of the metal production sector except machinery import of the production sector of non-mentioned machines and equipment import of organic chemical products import of machinery specialized for the industry new orders in the processing industry sector variables with the best performance of the leading indicators that entered the final composition of the composite industrial indicator of the economic activity of Serbia (INDIPAS)

TIPAS - leading indicator of trade Manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, physical volume Production in the food industry, physical volume Production in the textile industry, physical volume Imports of meat and meat products Real growth of VAT inflows Turnover of retail sale of food and beverages at current prices Physical volume of freight land and river traffic variables with the best performance of the leading indicators that entered the final composition of the composite industrial indicator of economic activity of Serbia (TIPAS)

AGRIPAS - leading indicator of agricultural production Model of plant production – precipitation (March-April, June-August and in the seedling period, estimation of harvest area, Palmer's Z moisture index) Model of livestock production – livestock and primary livestock products

Export indicator of economic activity of Serbia (IZIPAS) Auxiliary mechanism in the forecast of Serbia's GDP for the current year It is based on the dynamics of economic activity of the largest foreign trade partners of Serbia: Italy, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania IZIPAS is thus constructed as composite coinciding indicator of the GDP for the largest countries Serbia's export markets and shows high degree of cyclical alignment with GDP moving domestic economy

Thank you for your attention Launch FUNKY TUNES BOFFIN Katarina Stančić katarina.stancic@stat.gov.rs