Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009 National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009
Has the Economy Bottomed? Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so – After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, …,and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good. –the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first... Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so – After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, …,and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good. –the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first...
% Change in Real GDP 3 rd Q?
Cotton & Textile Demand
Textile Trade Declined thru May (Totals as reported by Global Trade Atlas)
US Cotton Domestic Consumption
More Modest Drop in US Spending for Clothing & Shoes
US Cotton Mill Use
International Markets
Update on Key Countries W Africa – Lower production & exports Brazil – Some quality concerns with current harvest; expected shift to soybeans Central Asia – Smaller crops due to reduced area Pakistan – No widespread concerns on production; new support to textile industry & some improvements in spinning margins W Africa – Lower production & exports Brazil – Some quality concerns with current harvest; expected shift to soybeans Central Asia – Smaller crops due to reduced area Pakistan – No widespread concerns on production; new support to textile industry & some improvements in spinning margins
China Cotton Supply & Use
China Cotton Price vs. A Index
Indias Min Support Price
India Cotton Supply & Use
Cotton Exports
US Production
09 Cotton 9.05 Million
US Acres & Relative Prices
US Cotton Production
Cotton Crop Conditions
US Supply & Demand 2009/10 Beg Stocks Production Total Supply Mill Use Exports Ending Stocks
Cotton Prices
Summary
Recovery in Mill Use?
Drawdown in World Stocks?
Have US Acres Bottomed? 10 ratios based on current Dec & Nov 10 futures contracts
Merchants Ginners Cottonseed Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers