Barometer of Public Opinion November 2011

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Presentation transcript:

Barometer of Public Opinion November 2011

Information about the Poll The poll was conducted on-site by “CBS-AXA” Centre for Sociological Investigations and Marketing Research Amount of the national sample: 1 113 people aged 18 or more; Representativeness: the national sample is representative for the adult population of the Republic of Moldova, with a maximal error of +2.9%; Period of data gathering: October, 22 – November, 6, 2011. The interviews were conducted at the respondents’ place either in Romanian or in Russian, at the respondents’ choice. The analysis of the sample structure obtained on-site revealed the concordance between the distribution of the population according to the available statistical data and those obtained, with the admissible statistical deviation. A difference was remarked within gender structure, women being over-represented, and within age groups, young people aged 18-29 being under-represented. The presented results are balanced. The difference between balanced and non-balanced results does not overpass 1,5% with regard to any question.

Is our country moving towards a right or a wrong direction?

Is our country moving towards a right or a wrong direction?

Assess the present income of your family

Assess the present income of your family

Is the personal security of an ordinary citizen ensured in the Republic of Moldova?

Does the people’s will rule in the Republic of Moldova, in your opinion?

Are the elections free and fair in the Republic of Moldova?

Index of political stability (Gallup International) Does the people’s will rule in the Republic of Moldova? Yes No Are the elections free and fair in the Republic of Moldova? Yes Yes Pillars of Democracy Yes No Deceived No Yes Observers No No Discontent

Index of political stability In an „ideal” democracy, everybody says Yes-Yes (all are „yes-sayers”!), and such a situation is defined by Gallup International as an ideal Political Stability; in fact, things are different and the groups of citizens formed based on the response are non-empty. Gallup International defines the groups as follows: „Yes Yes” Pillars of democracy „Yes No” Deceived „No No” Discontent „No Yes” Observers Index of political stability (GI) = %( Pillars of democracy) + %(Deceived) - % (Discontent)

Index of political stability (Gallup International) Does the people’s will rule in the Republic of Moldova? Yes No Are the elections free and fair in the Republic of Moldova? Yes Yes Pillars of democracy 9.3% Yes No Deceived 15.1% No Yes Observers 3.7% No No Discontent 71.9%

Index of political stability Index of political stability (GI) = %(Pillars of democracy) + %(Deceived) – % (Discontent) = =9.3%+15.1%-71.9% = - 47.5% Urban index of political stability(GI) = -50% Rural index of political stability (GI) = -45.6%

Index of political stability (trends)

To what extent are you concerned about the following issues which have been often raised over the past time?

To what extent is the living of an ordinary citizen affected by the fact that the President of the Republic of Moldova has not been elected since 2009?

Do you think that the Republic of Moldova should better be governed … ?

Do you think that the Republic of Moldova should better be governed … ?

Which political system is the best for the Republic of Moldova, in your opinion?

Which political system is the best for the Republic of Moldova, in your opinion?

If a referendum on the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union is held next Sunday, would you vote for or against it?

If a referendum on the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union is held next Sunday, would you vote for or against it?

If a referendum on the accession of the Republic of Moldova either to the European Union or to the Customs Union RUSSIA- BELARUS-KAZAKHSTAN was held, what would you opt for?

To what extent do you trust in …? No trust / Not so much trust / Some trust / Very much trust

Which political personality do you trust in the most Which political personality do you trust in the most? (open-ended question)

Which political personality do you trust in the most Which political personality do you trust in the most? (open-ended question)

To what extent do you trust in the following political personalities? I have not heard about I No trust I Not so much trust I Some trust I Very much trust

To what extent do you trust in the following political personalities To what extent do you trust in the following political personalities? (trends, BOP)

To what extent do you trust in the following political parties? I have not heard about I No trust I Not so much trust I Some trust I Very much trust

Which of the following statements would you agree with? DK/NA I I totally disagree I I rather disagree I I partly agree I I totally agree

Would you go to voting, if legislative election is held in the Republic of Moldova next Sunday?

Would you go to voting, if legislative election is held in the Republic of Moldova next Sunday?

If legislative election is held in the Republic of Moldova next Sunday: Percentage of the total sample! Would not vote in any case Would vote for this party

What party would you vote for, if legislative election is held in the Republic of Moldova next Sunday? Percentage correlated to the sub-sample of resolute respondents (73.5% of the total sample)!