Data You Can Believe In By JIM RUTENBERG.

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Presentation transcript:

Data You Can Believe In By JIM RUTENBERG

Big Data Trip to Vegas … In 2013, Senior members of President Barack Obama’s campaign team took a trip to Las Vegas. Analytics Media Group (A.M.G.) They were there to make money — specifically to land what they hoped would be the first corporate client for their new advertising business, Analytics Media Group.

Big Data Analytics Media Group (A.M.G.). Its bland name obscures its relatively grand promise: to deliver to commercial advertisers some of the Obama campaign’s secret, technologically advanced formulas for reaching voters. A Different Type of “Change.” It was not lost on the Obama strategists that the “change” they were talking about was not the kind “you can believe in” but rather the kind you can put In a slot machine. …

Big Data Public to private In a nonpresidential year, no political effort would have the money to Finance what he described as the “huge R.& D. project” that the Obama Campaign effectively became. The resources for that kind of project could now be found only in corporate America. …

Big Data 2012 Changed the Political World The “technology wizards” of the 2012 Obama campaign… “helped produce a victory that defied a couple of historical predictors; they also developed a host of highly effective marketing techniques that were either entirely new Or had never been tried on such a grand scale.”

Political Marketing Market Orientation in Politics: A Partys Orientation is defined by what it gives the public Three Options: 1) Product Approach: In terms of policies, the Party gives the Public what it (the Party) thinks the public should want or need. 2) Sales (Advertising) Approach: In terms of policies, the Party tries to convince the Public to support what the Party believes it needs. 3) Market Approach: In terms of policies, the Party gives the Public what it needs based on the public told them it wants.

Party Brands ? Product Approach: Party Policy No clear connection between what a party does or thinks in terms of policy and what the public needs or wants Public (Market)

Party Brands Sales Approach: Party Policy: One Way The Party attempts to “sell” or convince the public that it should want (and thus support) a party’s policies, without consulting the public. Public

Party Brands Market Approach: Party Policy: Two Way (Research Driven) A party has the potential to provide the public what it needs, because it has researched what the public wants. Public Implications: Market Approach empowers a party to respond to the public at the level of wants rather than needs.

Party Brands Market Approach: Party Targeting Public Frames Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Party Political Branding Policy and Promises (Loyalty) Political Branding Developing an idea, message, image, party narrative based on keen understanding of what certain market segments wants, and then building loyalty with that segment Frames: Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs Public Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Brand Failures Party Policy and Promises Positioning If policy/brand fails it can repositioned, or modified to reconnect or reaffirm concerns (frames) of the targeted segments. Public Positioning Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Policy Example: Republican Party: Health Care Republican Party Health Care: Repeal Political Branding Developing an idea, message, image, party narrative based on keen understanding of what certain market segments want, and then building loyalty with that segment Public Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Differentiation: Not the DemoCRAT…Party; does not response to DemoCRAT voters.

Party Brands Market Approach: Republican Party Brand: Public View Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Party Branding How the public views or experiences the party. Health Care: Repeal Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Public Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Republican Party Brand: Party View Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Party Branding The party brand story becomes the means through the party communicates, interactions and responses to its targeted segments on specific issues. Public Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Republican Party Brand Republican Party Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Institutionalization? A party brand story or narrative only works if in fact the party has a story, that is, it has agreed/decided as an institution to cohere around a particular political story. Public Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Republican Party Brand Republican Party Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Family Values, St Def Republican Institutionalization: The Republican Party has a brand story or narrative: Small Government Lower Taxes Family Values Strong Defense Date? Public Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Obama Brand 2008 Obama Obama Brand: Change, Hope, Audacity, Post-Part/ lnclusion Obama Brand: Obama had a brand story or narrative in 2008: Hope Change you Can believe in Public Responsible govt, community values… Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Democratic Party? Democratic Party ?????????????? Dem. Party Brand: The Democratic Party has talked about developing a brand: 2006: Ethical Politics (Rep Culture of Corruption) Public Responsible govt, community values… Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand: 2010 Elections Democratic Party Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief Dem. Party Brand: The Democratic Party did try to adopt the Obama brand in 2010 (Economic Policy) 2010: Recovery Act 95% Tax Cuts Obama Middle-Class Tax Relief Public Responsible govt, community values… Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand? Institutionalization? For the brand concept to work, it has be embraced (institutionalized) by the party. Question: Did the Dem. Party institutionalize the Obama brand? Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief Public Responsible govt, community values… Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand: US Senate 2010 Democratic Party Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief Institutionalization? Leadership (White House, DCCC, DSCC): Yes. Public Responsible govt, community values… Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand: US Senate 2010 Democratic Party Institutionalization? The 19 Democratic candidates running to retain party seats in the US Senate: NO! Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief Public Responsible govt, community values… Segments

Party Brands Market Approach: Republican Party Brand: US Senate 2010 Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Family Values, St Def Republican Institutionalization: The Republican leadership (RNC, NRSC, NRCC) and 18 candidates running to retain party seats in US Senate: YES Public Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice Segments

Figure 1. Candidate Messaging by Issue: US Senate Election, 2010 94% 88% 76% Percent 52% 47% 22% 16%

2012: Big Data Changed in the Ad Game Several of these “technology wizards” … were part of a singular breakthrough in the field of television-ad buying, where about 50 percent of the campaign’s budget was spent, or more than $400 million. New Approach The 2012 campaign took advantage of advanced set-top-box monitoring technology to figure out what shows the voters they wanted to reach were watching and when, resulting in a smarter and cheaper — if potentially more invasive — way to beam commercials into their homes.

Big Data Big Data and the 2012 Obama Campaign By mining data, “the campaign literally knew every single wavering voter in the country that it needed to persuade to vote for Obama, by name, address, race, sex and income.” Targeted TV ads “What’s more… the campaign had figured out how to get its television advertisements in front of them with a previously inconceivable level of knowledge and accuracy.”

Big Data Source of Data: Ask Voters Directly (2008) In the Bush era, strategists boasted about how they could predict voter behavior based upon car and sport preferences, a well-publicized bit of political magic that captured the imaginations of politicians and journalists alike. Wagner’s approach, part of a broader move in politics, cut all of that out; why engage in such divination when you have the time and money to just call voters and ask them about their leanings directly?

Big Data Source of Data: Ask Voters Directly In 2008, Wagner and his small team combined information from those calls with any other data they could find — census data, state voter lists and the like — and fed it into algorithms that produced support scores. Scoring Voters: 0 to 100 One source ranked how likely swing-state voters were to support Obama on a scale of 0 to 100, and another ranked how likely they were to show up at voting booths. Those scores helped the campaign direct resources toward the right voters, and Obama beat John McCain by 7 percentage points.

Big Data Does Big Data work? There were skeptics within the Democratic Party, until the 2010 Senate Special Election in Massachusetts when the big data programs and algorithms predicted Democratic candidate Martha Coakley would lose.

Big Data The Evolutionary Jump: Determining “Persuasion Scores” A newly robust and reliable “persuasion score” that identified how easily individual undecided voters could be persuaded to vote for or against the Democrat in a race, based on how likely they were to show shifts in their preferences in telephone interviews conducted over time.

Big Data Obama, Big Data and the 2012 Presidential Election Obama in Trouble: A Fifth of 2008 Vote now Undecided Joel Benenson, the president’s national pollster, conducted a “benchmark” poll that had some sobering results. Roughly a fifth of Obama’s 2008 vote had shifted into the undecided column.

Big Data Obama, Big Data and the 2012 Presidential Election Obama Facebook Strategy: Target Undecided Voters Why not try sifting through self-described supporters’ Facebook pages in search of friends who might be on the campaign’s list of the most persuadable voters? Goal of the Program: Deputize Supporters on Facebook The campaign’s ultimate goal was to deputize the closest Obama- supporting friends of voters who were wavering in their affections for the president. Example: Tagged Photos What is in a tag?

Big Data Obama, Big Data and the 2012 Presidential Election Obama ad strategy: Right Ad in Front of the Right Person For instance, a campaign may need to win over those 5 percent of independent, female, likely voters who are still undecided, but there is no separate ratings category for them, no precise way to know which shows they are watching.