Experimental Quarterly Supply & Use framework for Scotland Andrew Mortimer SNAP team

Presentation outline Background to the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) Purpose of the QSU framework Brief overview of the methods Review of some experimental results implied by the QSUs Future developments

SNAP: What users want More timely short-term indicators Fewer revisions over time More coherence between economic statistics More time-series analysis Public Sector Finances and National Accounts for Scotland – related analysis Onshore – offshore analyses More modelling work – social/economic/environmental

SNAP Project Overview Two main strands: Building on the annual Input-Output framework for Scotland to produce more up to date estimates of income, expenditure and production GDP in value terms; Use a range of data sources and the quarterly UK National Accounts to produce a range of consistent quarterly economic indicators for Scotland.

Achieving coherence is a particularly difficult challenge, and the attempt to improve coherence as more information becomes available is a significant reason for longer-term revisions. Achieving greater coherence within, and between, economic statistics is a bit like trying to do a jigsaw: –without the overall picture on the box to guide you, and –without having all the pieces Indeed not only do you not have the picture, the picture itself changes as we compile it. Bits of the jigsaw are changed until we have a picture which makes economic sense. Karen Dunnell, National Statistician Measuring the UK economy 2008

Compilation of QSUs – Data prep. Current version uses the source data underpinning two publications: –2004 input-output tables and multipliers for Scotland; and –2008Q4 release of quarterly GDP at basic prices. All data extracted in current prices (NSA). –Simplistic inflation of volume series in current version Both sources aggregated to 116 industry / commodity level

Compilation of QSUs – calculations 1.Growth rates in Quarterly output applied to base year (2004) monetary values from Use table. 2.Industry output (basic prices) converted into product output using Supply table 3.Product output (basic prices) used to calculate total supply of products at purchasers prices 4.Total final demand calculated as residual of total supply and intermediate demand (step 1) 5.Final demand distributed across sectors using 2004 proportions

Compilation of QSUs – key points All relationships essentially fixed: –Output / GVA / Intermediate demand / taxes / final demand / trade –However, calculations performed at a statistically high resolution Only one additional data source being used to shock base year S/U tables –QSUs do not stand up to a great deal of scrutiny; –No attempt made to balance supply and demand (QSUs balance near-automatically) –Very much experimental / Not a National Statistics product QSUs do provide: –a framework to allow data-confrontation in the short-term; –Potentially, the fundament of a future Scottish quarterly National Account

Some Results… NOTE: EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICS

Comparison of quarterly GDP(i) and implied income from the QSUs – total GVA at current prices.

A01 : Agriculture agriculture Wood products Retail

Comparison of total HHFCE and implied household expenditure from the QSUs.

communicationsClothes and shoes

Developments Identify more candidate indicators –Improvements to experimental GDP(I) measure –Quarterly manufactured exports –Product taxes –Others? –Begin trial balances using new indicators Longer run series –Constrained to new time-series supply & use tables –Constrained using cubic-splined differences Treatment of volume series –Identify suitable deflators –Developed incrementally Government Expenditure –Assess COINS as a source

Experimental Quarterly Supply & Use framework for Scotland Discussion