A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran

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Presentation transcript:

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Mission Impossible? Michele Capeleto, Naval Analyst +44 020 325 32137 Michele.Capeleto@ihs.com

Oversight of the Channel A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Overview – Presentation Structure Recent Developments Key Scenarios Defining the Channel Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Recent Developments A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Recent Developments Recent Developments JCPOA 2025 2015 Implementation Day Key Scenarios Defining the Channel Adoption Day Controlled Items UNSCR 2231 Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Key Scenarios A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Key Scenarios Recent Developments - Lifted sanctions are ‘secondary’ sanctions - US persons still face huge business limitations - Civil aviation; US-owned Foreign Entities; import of certain Iranian products. - Terminated most trade & financial restrictions - US secondary sanctions no longer applicable - Greater risk of non-compliance Key Scenarios Defining the Channel Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Defining the Channel A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Defining the Channel Recent Developments Legitimate Export Procedures Nuclear relevant items Prior Approval Key Scenarios Defining the Channel PROCUREMENT CHANNEL Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Controlled Items A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Controlled Items Recent Developments WHAT IS COVERED? Key Scenarios NSG Trigger List CONTROLLED ITEMS AND ACTIVITIES Defining the Channel Controlled Items NSG Dual-use List Oversight of the Channel Catch-all Clause Procedural Issues ? Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

Oversight of the Channel A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Controlled Items – The ‘Catch-all’ Provision Recent Developments “ With the purpose of establishing a procurement channel, […] the Joint Commission will […] review and decide on proposals by states seeking to supply [items listed in the NSG Lists], as well as any further items if the relevant State determines that they could contribute to activities inconsistent with the JCPOA” Key Scenarios Defining the Channel Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Oversight of the Channel A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Oversight of the Channel Recent Developments UNSC Key Scenarios Defining the Channel Joint Commission / PWG Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues Exporting State Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Procedural Issues A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Procedural Issues Recent Developments Application Form End-use Certificate Additional Supporting Documents Key Scenarios Defining the Channel Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel How detailed a description? Procedural Issues Translation/language issues EUC for dual-use, non-nuclear end-use Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Final Remarks A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Final Remarks Recent Developments MULTIPLE SANCTIONS REGIMES Key Scenarios Defining the Channel IRAN’S PAST EFFORTS Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues CLEARER APPROVAL / DENIAL CONDITIONS Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Final Remarks A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran Final Remarks Recent Developments END-USE CHECKS Key Scenarios Defining the Channel DISPUTE SETTLEMENT Controlled Items Oversight of the Channel Procedural Issues DATA STANDARDISATION Final Remarks © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! A Nuclear Procurement Channel for Iran / April 2016 Michele Capeleto, Naval Analyst +44 020 325 32137 Michele.Capeleto@ihs.com THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! © 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.

© 2016 IHS. All RIGHTS RESERVED.