Social, Political, Economic & Cultural Barometer March 2010 Report Date: 30th March 2010

Methodology

Poll Methodology Dates of polling March 21st – March 26th 2,003 respondents Sample Size Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Poll Methodology (Cont..) The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,003 respondents was drawn to achieve a 35:65 urban to rural ratio. The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. At the same time this sample size is large enough to administer strict quality control measures in order to manage any occurrence of non-random errors. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 21st and 26th March 2010 To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 46 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

Poll Methodology (Cont..) These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Satisfaction with Govt

“How satisfied are you with the way the Government is dealing with the issues facing our country?” Base: n=2003 (All respondents)

Approval rating

“To what extent do you approve the general performance of ….?” by Total Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“How sincere are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption? Would you say they are…? ” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“In your opinion, do you want the grand coalition to last until 2012 even if we get a new constitution?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

Constitution matters

“How much do you know about the new draft constitution?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Do you think the total number of constituencies should…?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Would you prefer your constituency to be split or remain the same?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

Kadhis’ Courts

“Are you aware of Kadhis’ courts?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

Do you support the inclusion of Kadhis’ Courts in the new constitution Do you support the inclusion of Kadhis’ Courts in the new constitution? By Total Base: n=2003 (All respondents)

Abortion

“According to you, when would you say the life of a human being starts “According to you, when would you say the life of a human being starts?”: By Total Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Thinking about abortion, which of the following is closest to your view?”: By Religion Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Under which of the following circumstances do you think abortion should be legal?” : By Total Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

Support of the Draft Constitution: By Familiarity with content

“Do you want the parliament to?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Regarding the members of cabinet in the new constitution, which of the following do you support?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“If a referendum were held today, would you vote in favour or against the draft constitution?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Support of the draft constitution in relation to familiarity with it

TJRC

“What is the TJRC intended to achieve?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“Are you in support of having the commission or not?” Base: n=1374 (Those correctly mentioned the intentions of TJRC)

“Who is the chair of the TJRC?” Base: n=1374 (Those correctly mentioned the intentions of TJRC)

“Do you think he should continue as the chair?” Base: n=1374 (Those who correctly mentioned the chair of TJRC)

Popularity Ratings: Political Parties and Potential Presidential Candidates

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?” Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

All mentioned personalities Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta Mwai Kibaki William Ruto Marta Karua Eugene Wamalwa Kenneth Marende Musalia Mudavadi George Saitoti Francis Atwoli Charity Ngilu Patrick Lumumba Daniel Moi Ababu Namwamba Peter Kenneth Esther Arunga Najib Balala Anyan'g Nyongo Maina Njenga Sheikh M. Door Moses Wetangula Bonny Khalwale Hassan Joho John Michuki Beth Mugo Raphael Tuju Paul Muite Mutula Kilonzo Chris Okemo Manyala Keya Jimmy Kibaki Kiraitu Murungi Wangari Mathai Margaret Wanjiru Danson Mungatana Mutava Musyimi

“If an election for president was held now, who would you vote for, if that person was a candidate?”: By Total Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

“If an election for president was held now, who would you vote for, if that person was a candidate?”: Time Series

“If an election for president was held now, who would you vote for, if that person was a candidate?”: By Province

“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”:Time Series Base: n=2003 (All Respondents)

For further details Please contact: George Waititu Tel: + 254 20 4450 196 Mobile: +254 722206980

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