Unrisked Results Alpha Prospect – Unrisked Excedance Probability 100% 100 80% 60% Excedance Probability 40% Economic Minimum 20% Slide 31 From the hundreds of combinations, we can develop this plot It is called an excedance probability chart There is 100% probability of finding zero or more million barrels of oil This chart tells me there is a 50% chance of finding 200 MBO or more, and A 20% chance of finding the 275 MBO Given that are economic minimum is 100 MBO, there is a 75% chance of finding the economic minimum These are called “unrisked” results – these are OK if every component of the HC system is working, i.e., there is a source that generated HC, there is a trap, we have migration pathways, etc. 0% 100 200 300 400 Million Barrels of Oil 50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more 75% Chance of finding the economic minimum Courtesy of ExxonMobil L14 – Prospect Analysis