Returned Foreign Fighters: An Indefinite Threat?

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Presentation transcript:

Returned Foreign Fighters: An Indefinite Threat? David Malet American University August 21, 2018

The Foreign Fighter Project (2016 data) Research The Foreign Fighter Project (2016 data) 352 civil conflicts 1815-2015 91 cases of foreign fighters (26%) Increase from 70 (21%) in 2007 data Jihadis growing proportion but still only about half

Largest Mobilizations Spain 1930s ~60k Soviet Union 1910s-20s ~50k China 1930s-40s ~40k Syria/Iraq 2010s ~40k Afghanistan 1970s-present ~25k Central Africa 1990s-present ~10k Israel/Palestine 1940s ~10k South America 1810-20s ~9k Texas/Mexico 1830s ~6k Iraq 2000s ~5k

Research

Research

Conflict Outcomes (Updated Data)   Civil Conflicts 1815-2015 All Conflicts (352) Foreign Fighters (91) Incumbent Victory 207 (59%) 37 (40%) Insurgent Victory 95 (27%) 31(34%) Stalemate 20 (5%) 4 (5%) Ongoing 30 (9%) 19 (21%) Victory ratio essentially unchanged since 2005, but double the number of foreign fighter conflicts are currently ongoing Chu and Braithwaite (2017) lower government victory rates vs. non-local foreign fighters

Lags in Attacks by Extremist Returnees (LATER) Malet and Hayes 230 Jihadis who left Western countries for foreign fighting or training Return data by year for 134 Return data by month for 90 1980-2016 time period – builds from JPIW and new data from 12 Western nations

Return-Attack Lag Time (Months) Mean (vs total) 9 10 Median 5 Mode 4

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